My Iowa Straw Poll Prediction

Voting in the Iowa Straw Poll should be drawing to a close any minute now, and before the formal results are announced, I’m going to go out on a limb and make my own prediction on who’ll finish where. Even though his campaign has been trying to lower expectations leading up to the Straw Poll, I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Mitt Romney is going to win this thing hands down. I’m also going to go ahead and predict Senator Sam Brownback finishes second, followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee in third place. I think former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson will finish well behind the leaders in the Straw Poll, and if he’s a man of his word he’ll drop from the race shortly thereafter. I don’t see Senator John McCain finishing in the top five in the Straw Poll, simply because he’s neglected Iowa. I know I’m going out on a little bit of a limb here, but I’m also going to go ahead and predict a strong showing for Senator Barack Obama, with a finish in the top five of the Straw Poll. Obama is the one Democratic candidate who seems to have a lot of crossover appeal to Republicans, and I expect he’ll surprise some folks once the results are announced tonight.

Ultimately, if Senator Brownback and governor Huckabee finish in the top three in the Straw Poll as I’m predicting, I see both gaining a lot of momentum, with governor Huckabee possibly putting himself into the top tier of Republican candidates. Likewise, I see the results of the Straw Poll doing irreparable damage to a number of campaigns, including governor Thompson, Senator McCain, and Congressman Duncan Hunter. I’m not a Republican, but I’d like to see the field start to thin, because there’s a lot of folks in this race who have absolutely no business running for President.

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