Some primary day predictions

Just a few predictions on some important races today, keeping in mind that this list is far from exhaustive:

• Chris Larson v. Jeff Plale (Democratic primary in 7th State Senate District): A lot of money has been spent in this race, including scads of money from outside groups on both sides, and the race has gotten really nasty in a personal way. I’m predicting a Larson win over Sen. Plale, by a margin of 52% to 48%.

• Scott Walker v. Mark Neumann (Republican gubernatorial primary): This is the race to watch in the state of Wisconsin. Scott Walker’s entire gubernatorial campaign has been run with the assumption he’s the frontrunner and would win easily today, but the fact that he’s gone negative in recent weeks seems to signal a shift in the race. I’m going to go out on a big limb and predict Walker loses today, with Mark Neumann winning by a margin of 51% to 49%.

• Dave Westlake v. Ron Johnson (Republican U.S. Senate primary): Everywhere I go, I see Scott Walker and Ron Johnson yard signs in tandem. Obviously yard signs don’t vote, but the point I’m getting at is that it certainly seems to me that the better Mark Neumann does, the better Dave Westlake will do, since the two seem to share some common supporters. However, while I like Dave Westlake and I’d like to see him win the Republican U.S. Senate primary, I’m calling this race for Ron Johnson, by a margin of 58% to 42%. (However, I will say that if Westlake does by some miracle win today, I’ll don a blaze orange “I Am Dave Westlake” t-shirt for a full 24 hours)

• Chris Moews v. David Clarke (Democratic Milwaukee County Sheriff primary): Without the crossover conservative voters who’ve helped conservative Clarke win election after election, I’m predicting Chris Moews wins today, by a margin of 54% to 46%.

Obviously I’m no expert political pundit, so I fully expect these predictions will be wildly inaccurate.