Topic of the Week: election predictions
Election day looms ever closer, and I’d like to know your predictions for the myriad of races happening here in Wisconsin. Big or small, statewide or local….I want your predictions.
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I believe the Governor race is going to be closer than what the polls say but Walker will win. Johnson is going to win over Feinglod as Feingold strongholds of Dane and Milwaukee counties will not get the numbers for him this time as the last election. In the 8th Steve Kagen will lose by huge numbers to Reid Ribble
All I care about is Barrett, Feingold, and Lehman in Racine. I don’t have enough energy to worry about any other races. Politics is draining….
word 2 yer mother (re: draining)
What in the hell does “word 2 yer mother (re: draining)” mean? Anyone?
Governor race will be closer than most think, on the principle that they only poll about a 1,000 people at a time. While it is randomized, it still is often mostly in red areas. It’s a toss up, pure and simple. In similarity, it will be a close call with Kagen and Ribble, and it could go either way.
(Honestly, I don’t have much against Ribble, if he beats Kagen? All right. I can live with that, I just don’t agree with Ribble’s ideology, but at least he’s not leaning so far right it will make the state go flying backward.)
Russ Feingold I believe will win. Johnson is just too incompetent compared to the people who ran against him in the past and a lot of people know that. Also, there are many farmers, people out in the rural parts of the state that respect Feingold a lot and I bet will be sure to get in their vote.
Barrett’s win will only come if people go out and vote for Russ to vote down the party line, because Wisconsin historically never has a democratic governor when there is not a democratic senator.
I also predict there will be a lot of votes ‘lost’ in Milwaukee County in a similar case of 2004, or ‘disqualified’ because they wrote their street address wrong.
In addition, to my statement of Barrett’s win will only come if people vote for Russ and vote the party line?
What I meant to say is it’s not possible for a Republican Governor and a Democratic Senator, however it’s usually impossible for viceversa, a Democratic Governor and a Republican Senator.
I actually hate making predictions, it’s a “guy” “sports fan” thing to do. Once you get out of the highly scripted behaviors of any sports arena, human beings are far too unpredictable IMO. But okay fine, I’ll give it a shot
But, I won’t predict overall wins for races that include Milwaukee etc. I don’t know the “feel” of that part of the state.
However, winning here on the “West Coast” -
Scott Walker
Russ Feingold
Ron Kind, by a hair
Julie Lassa
very close Moulton-Kreitlow (I lean ever so delicately to a Moulton win)
Tom Larson
Ed Thompson
Mike Conlin
Kathy Bernier
The reasoning behind the predictions -
I think a lot depends on student behavior NOT just turn-out. I suspect significant numbers will vote for Feingold, MAYBE Governor,leaving other races blank
I see “regular” people going Republican in a lot of cases. Not due to the supposed Tea sweeps or Dem backlash, but because some of these Republicans have more “engaging” one-on-one personalities than their lackluster Dem opponents, and I think that will get people who have actually met them thru the years off their couches.
re: Russ/RoJo
“Job creation” never really seems to happen over here. The standing joke is, no matter what you had planned to do with your life, if you stay here, you’ll end up driving forklift for John Menard. Even if folks wanna believe in RoJo’s “creation promises” I think it’s a nagging reality in the backs of heads that it will be everywhere else, but not here.
So the responses and past behavior of Russ re: farm, veterans, and a few other items will be more real feel than the way those issues didn’t even seem to enter RoJo’s grid. His talking points are very nationally driven, not very Wisconsin-y. That plays better in more populated areas I think.
Plus, the loss of the familiar, patriarchal Obey and the inevitability of getting a Schoolgirl Barbie or a Horny Beach Ken in his place will make people want a familiar mature male face(Russ) and I’d also be amazed if the average person here really perceives Russ as a DANGEROUS COMMIE after all these years just because the hype machine has been thrown into high gear lately.
There is NO WAY Russ Feingold is going to win re-election. Independents are NOT voting for him this year. You are stating what has happened in the past with some GOP cross-over for Russ. We can’t stand him now after HC and the townhalls where he didn’t listen. He is DONE.
I’m independent. I’m voting for Russ. If it continues to go veering far right with this mob mentality, I expect many people to jump the line completely to democrat since they realize the situation.
You’re painting a broad brush my friend. It’s leaning too far right for my liking and many of colleagues who are also independent.
You say you are independent but I would guess that the majority of the people you vote for are liberals. Just reading your post is pretty clear,
Or maybe I got sick and tired of the Republican Party continuing to veer further and further right to the point of complete lunacy. Many of my Republican friends said in their words “We had how many years to take out Feingold, and we got THIS?”
Frankly, a lot of us independents and moderate voice are sick and tired of being pulled around by both parties.
Yeah it’s cool and all to people to say they are independents, but in what ways are you a moderate voice? Voting for any Republicans?
yes, Two for sure, perhaps 3. I still am thinking about the 3rd
And I may leave the Governor blank. To explain that would take effort I may not want to make. I really don’t owe anyone apologies for using my vote as I see fit.
Honestly, with Ribble even if he was willing to talk about it? I’d might actually vote for him. Sadly, he just wants to repeal it. If he talked, maybe we could just get rid of the bullshit having to have insurance by 2014 or get fined. That’s the only problem I have with the bill. And I know for a fact, as Russ Feingold said in his meeting? That Ribble if he attempted to even talk to democrats, he would be attacked by the GOP and the Tea Party just like that poor guy in South Carolina. That is wrong.
The fact is, there is no really capable Republicans and all of them have a rather shady record in some shape or form, are not willing to negotiate, are just riding the wave of negativity, or are known to little or no intelligence.
Have you personally went out of you way to study the voting records of your people you are voting for? Do you think Stem Cell Research should be banned? Do you think fertility clinics should be opened when they destroy just as many embryos? Do you believe in abortion under no circumstances to the point if a baby is formed outside of the womb both die? Do you realize how much of an insult farmers across Wisconsin felt when they heard Walker and Johnson open their big mouths?
Frankly, I’m not a fan of killing babies. But I do think we need that open because on the genetic level? Humans are fucking awkward and our birthing process is dangerous. What takes a few hours for a lot of animals can last days for us and it was historically known to kill a ton of women to boot.
( Men often were inflicted with other diseases, so please don’t try to derail the topic into that. We have found cures for those too as well. )
We made a lot of jumps in our medical committee, diseases that inflict men, women, straight, gay, children and elderly to have them longer lives. People of other races as well.
And to be honest? If I was in Tom Petri’s district? I would vote for him. He has proven to be a good representative by all means and honorable in his own way to boot. He sticks by his principles and that? Is awesome.
However I don’t have the money, I don’t have the time, when I have a responsibility up here with taking care of my grandparents and my little siblings who live with us.
Also, before you tell them to get a job? My two younger sisters and brother do have it. I have two. The two youngest can’t work because hello, they’re 10 and 9 but they’re still working part time cleaning a kennel anyway.
“no really capable Republicans and all of them have a rather shady record” I would like to hear more about these shady records.
“farmers across Wisconsin felt when they heard Walker and Johnson open their big mouths? ” Again would like to know more about this
Why is it that Walker and Johnson try to appeal to farmers, yet say they have no problem helping the middle man for instance? Why not help more farmers themselves instead of having them having to nearly break their backs? ( Yes, I’m aware if you make a pumpkin patch in your backyard or whatever you get a tax break so please not derail into that. )
I realize the middleman needs to make money too, but what they make is a ridiculous amount and little goes back to the hardworking farmers of Wisconsin. It’s actually a sad system, in similarity to how Wisconsin was in the late 1800s how many people who created the goods got it shipped off to New York and New York didn’t give anything back.
A huge reason I’m voting for Tom Barret is the fact he has a history of consistently wanting to help farmers, which may sound a bit strange from Milwaukee’s mayor and that is Wisconsin’s ‘big city’ but if you think of it in terms of it is connected to probably one of the biggest trade centers in the midwest (Chicago) it makes sense why he would fight for that. Enhanced tax credits actually helps a lot for farmers which I don’t see anywhere with Scott Walker. There’s a long history with how Tom Barrett opposes legislation that would have hurt a ton of people in dairy and agriculture in general – even back when he was a part of Wisconsin State Assembly in the 80s so it’s nothing new at all.
Scott Walker’s agricultural page is… it doesn’t seem to work out for farmers as a person who grew up on a farm and seen how agriculture is done. It works for the middle man, but the farmer it’s like … It sounds good and I figure he has good intentions on lowering taxes on farms, but you can’t exactly make government accountable at the sametime while lowering taxes – it’s a contradiction. Especially since some specific taxes are to benefit farmers in case say if a river floods, a drought happens, or some pests go rambo on the crop. And let me tell you, the weather is unpredictable in Wisconsin, and I’m sure you’re very well aware of that. Given, I do think farmers need a ton more respect in the state. Along with a ton of blue collar workers.
Also, please do not bring up Doyle. He’s not particularly popular with his choice to help factory farms instead of family farms. He is really not popular for his decisions. (I for one don’t see the problem with raw milk for instance to be sold as long as you label it as such. People can read.)
Honestly, the only thing I have against Barrett is his sort of irrational stance on guns, but I don’t want to get into it. I frankly believe those who want guns and want to kill someone, will find guns and that’s why a lot of people should have concealed carry legal. They’re not going to care if they’re going to a school event, church, or whatever – they’re just going to shoot it up if they want to kill someone. In an idealistic world, I’d say no guns ever, but I realize the reality.
Feingold also has consistently worked for agriculture and actually often brings it up in D.C. – a long history with them too which is why he’s popular where I’m at. The fact that Ron Johnson kind of said what he said during the debate and doesn’t really have many ideas to help us is a reason why many farmers were just sort of “What.” about it.
Frankly, I think most people’s minds here are not going to be changed with who you vote for or not. I just tend to study the hell out of their histories I can find from newspaper clippings, online, and whatever I can gather regardless of right or left sources.
Oh crap. So many typoes in that – really wish I had a preview button so I could look less stupid.
Either way, I think you got the gist though, right?
and yet YOU seem not to really read his/her comments. The people s/he admired in another post were not exactly Abbie Hoffmann.
Will you be embarrassed if it turns out that you are wrong? I can’t understand speaking this emphatically at all. NotaLib was very “staunch” (to use a Monty Python term) as well. I just don’t understand the eagerness to appear totally infallible.
I am Independent and voting for Russ as are 4 of my family members. Then there is a large contingency of the family tree scattered thru WI (50 people +) some of whom are are vehemently Democrat from morn till night no matter how heinous the behavior, they think of any excuse to excuse it and stand by their Man (and Woman) with thought, word,deed – and cash. Then there are all the “townies”I know who are feverishly Left and even if they feel the local party is not far enough left they devotedly support whatever piece of Humanity the locals scrape up.
Maybe you live in a gated community or something and have a false sense of homogeneity. But your adamant remark makes no sense. I hope you will be able to share your thoughts and feelings on Wednesday if your Crystal Ball seems to have cracked. You seem overly macho, I never understand how macho persons then wipe the egg off their face if Reality kicks their ass.
Let’s see. Hmmm…well…and I promise not to gloat later on:
THE WINNERS!
Walker
Johnson
Wanguaarrd
Mason
Duffy
Ribble
Kapanke
King
Ooops…I meant Mason’s opponent, Chris Wright. Mason will lose…
Here are the ones I’m sure of:
U.S. Senate – Russ Feingold in a squeaker
State Senate (7th) – Chris Larson
State Assembly (20th) – Chris Sinicki
House of Reps (4th) – Gwen Moore in a landslide
One more: Walker beats Barrett in a squeaker.
Here are some of mine:
Governor – Walker by a hair
Senator – Feingold by 5 points
House – Tammy Baldwin easily(might be the first race called of the night)
State Assembly – Hebl easily also
I dont know enough of the other races to predict just my own. Heaven help us though if Kapanke gets in….he should be running for prisoner of the year not congressman.
Lol the AP has probably already declared Baldwin the winner.
Jim Sullivan pulls it out. Leah Vukmir is too busy stumping in the west end of the District with Borokfield Betty and Elm Grove Ellen. I don’t think she recognizes that West Milwaukee and West Allis are part of the 5th District. By the way, who arranged for Elm Grove and West Milwaukee to be in the same senatorial district?