Blogging Blue » Election 2012

Statistics and the Recall

Phil Scarr — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 01:48:57 +0000

Before he passed away in 1995, my dad was the Deputy Director of the US Census. So I spent a lot of time hearing about statistics growing up. I was pleased to see that someone, in this case the Journal-Sentinel, decided to test a statistically significant sample of the Recall petitions and reached the conclusion that only 15% of the signatures could not be verified.

After randomly selecting petitions and names from the accountability board web site, the newspaper checked available public records including the Wisconsin courts database, a state voter database, LexisNexis.com, the White Pages and other online search engines.

For most of the 73 signatures that couldn’t be verified, there was a record that the person existed and was of voting age, but no address could be found to match the one listed on the petition.

A name was considered invalid in the newspaper review if no record could be found for the signee at the address listed, if they weren’t old enough to vote or if they were a felon under state supervision.

What’s interesting that the errors discovered were not for the breathless GOP fears of Mickey Mouse and Adolf Hitler, but instead it was real people who, for some reason, got some piece of their information incorrect. Lassitude and not fraud seem to be the source of these errors.

But even with a 15% error rate, there will be no problem ~~bringing Scott Walker to justice~~ recalling Scott Walker.

Erpenbach Strikes Back

Jeff Simpson — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:54:17 +0000

The story came out yesterday that The republicans were unanimous in swearing their secrecy, to Michael, Best & Freidrich while they spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of taxpayer money to make sure they had as many republican friendly districts as possible.

The problem with that(ok there are numerous problems, but one of the problems was the republicans denied the democrats legal representation. The republicans pointed out that thanks to MB & F, everyone was represented. They just forgot to ever let the democrats get involved. That did not sit well with Jon Erpenbach and he let them know with this letter:

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Eric McLeod

Michael, Best and Friedrich

One South Pinckney St.

Suite 700

Madison, WI 53707

Dear Mr. McLeod,

Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau) has insisted from the start of the redistricting process that the process has not been political in nature. He even went so far as to deny Senate Democrats legal representation in this process, saying that the Senate already had a law firm: yours. That fact was restated by his staff, when ask by myself, as a member of the Senate Committee on Judiciary, Utilities and Government Operations during a recent hearing. During that hearing, I asked Sen. Fitzgerald’s staff on more than one occasion, and more than one way, if politics were involved with redistricting. His answer was always the same, “no.”

Therefore, it is my understanding, as the elected State Senator of the 27th Senate District, I am your client. As your client I would like to review the file regarding your firm’s work on redistricting.

Attorney client privilege should not be an issue here because I am one of the 33 clients you represent.

If it’s not your understanding that your firm represents all 33 Wisconsin State Senators, then perhaps we need further clarification from Sen. Fitzgerald. Otherwise, please provide me with a copy of the entire redistricting file.

To be very clear, I really have a disdain for reading about a case that involves me and the entire Wisconsin State Senate in the newspaper.

Sincerely,

Jon Erpenbach

State Senator

27th Senate District

I will anxiously await the response to this letter! This is starting to get interesting!

The Once and Future Shill

Phil Scarr — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 18:19:17 +0000

Shill: A shill, plant or stooge is a person who helps a person or organization without disclosing that he or she has a close relationship with that person or organization. Shill typically refers to someone who purposely gives onlookers the impression that he or she is an enthusiastic independent customer of a seller (or marketer of ideas) that he or she is secretly working for. The person or group that hires the shill is using crowd psychology, to encourage other onlookers or audience members to purchase the goods or services (or accept the ideas being marketed). Shills are often employed by confidence artists.

Rick Esenberg is, and always will be, a partisan hack. A mouthpiece trotted out before the press by the state GOP to render his “opinions” on a variety of topics that affect the lives of the people of Wisconsin. The trouble is, Professor Rick is a lawyer, and his opinions are different from yours or mine. I don’t mean that he holds different opinions, I mean that his opinions are part of his job as an attorney. When he is asked to “render an opinion,” he is bound by the canons of ethics for lawyers in Wisconsin. Lawyers are paid and expected to render opinions based on the facts and not on the party line. In his zeal to play the slavish lapdog to his Republican masters, he sometimes forgets this. He and Michael Gableman share this trait. But Professor Rick has never been bothered by ethical conflicts in the past, so why should he start now?

He can be guaranteed to toe the party line each and every time. The GOPs pet law professor.

So it’s always satisfying when he gets his ass handed to him in public by Peter Earle. Watch from a hearing on redistricting from July, 2011.

What makes this video so disturbing (and it is disturbing) is that, at the time, Peter Earle wondered publicly what information Professor Rick might have had access to that the rest of the hearing participants did not. How was Professor Rick able to render a legal opinion on data in such a short period of time?

Well silly me for thinking the GOP would ever play by the rules of governance. As it turns out, Voices de la Frontera, Earle’s client at the time, have now filed a complaint with the state that the GOP violated the open records law in their redistricting process.

Documents released yesterday showed that virtually all G-O-P lawmakers signed confidentiality agreements which promised not to discuss the maps while they were being written. And they were told that those who speak out could be called as witnesses in court. The documents also said that 33-of-the-58 Republican Assembly members would pick up additional voters under the new districts. The documents were released after three federal judges in the redistricting suit said G-O-P legislators filed frivolous legal requests, so they could hide their actions in creating the new maps. Those maps will be used for the first time in this fall’s elections unless the courts overturn them.

The complaint states, in part:

On June 20, 2011, Adam Foltz drafted a document captioned “General Talking Points” which he described during his sworn testimony on February 1, 2012, as talking points to guide the discussion at each of the individual meetings he had with each member of the Assembly who had previously signed a secrecy agreement. The talking points memo stated that the redistricting bill was a “placeholder map” and that “if the Senate comes back in the majority, we may come back and adjust.” Mr. Foltz testified at his deposition that the preceding sentence was referring to the then pending recall elections that were scheduled for August 9, 2011. The talking points memo also stated that “Public comments on this map may be different than what you hear in this room. Ignore the public comments.” The talking points memo then explicitly stated that the previously signed secrecy agreement applied to the individual meeting between Mr. Foltz and each individual Republican representative…. (emphasis in original)

The complaint asserts that this entire process is a violation of the Open Meetings law, a law these clowns have tripped over in the past.

So the real question I have is what did Professor Rick know and when did he know it? He certainly seemed to have some special knowledge back in July to which no one else was privy. He rendered an opinion of the fairness of the redistricting. We’re left with only two conclusions:

1. Professor Rick is incompetent and rendered a legal opinion on a limited understanding of the facts in evidence
2. Professor Rick is corrupt and rendered a legal opinion on preferential access to facts not in evidence

Which is it, Professor Rick? Take your pick…

“Ignore the Public Comments”

Jeff Simpson — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 05:33:38 +0000

If you take away anything from this next story, as egregious as it is, remember that line. That should be the mantel that the democrats use to prop up their republican counterparts in the upcoming election.

Now on to the story: JSonline delved into more detail regarding the republicans redistricting process. and the one word to describe this process: WOW!

First off, republicans had to SIGN Secrecy agreements:

Other newly released documents also show almost all Republican lawmakers signed legal agreements promising not to discuss the new maps while they were being developed…The agreement tells each lawmaker “you agree not to disclose the fact and/or contents of such discussions or any draft documents within your possession.”

All the agreements were also signed by Eric McLeod of Michael Best & Friedrich, one of several attorneys who advised lawmakers on the maps. Legislative leaders have committed $400,000 in taxpayer money to pay Michael Best and the Troupis Law Office for their work on the maps.

Quick aside: If the name Eric McLeod sounds familiar, he is the lawyer who bought Michael Gableman.

The republicans (specifically Adam Foltz, a legislative aide to Jeff Fitzgerald who helped draft the maps), where this gem was written.

“Public comments on this map may be different than what you hear in this room. Ignore the public comments,” the talking points also say.

Why whatever does that mean? Adam Foltz is no help, he had no idea he wrote them. Luckily we have people like attorney Peter Earle who tells us

it was clear from the case’s record that GOP lawmakers were being told to ignore what their leaders were saying publicly and to focus on what they said in private.

translation: the republicans will be lying in public but working on it behind the scenes. Do not believe anything they say.

This case was started in court in December when Mr. Foltz testified that the new maps were not meant to increase the GOP majority.

Foltz said those who developed the maps used election data from 2000 to 2010 in helping decide where to draw the lines. Yet the goal of the maps was not to increase the GOP’s advantage in elections, he testified.

Not sure Adam rally wants to perjure himself at such a young age to protect the Fitzgerald family. You are too young to start your career like this, Ask Tim Russell what trying to cover up for your boss gets you. Hopefully there is still time for Mr. Foltz to correct his story. Since we now know he is not telling the truth:

The new batch of records also includes memos from Foltz to Republican lawmakers telling them how GOP candidates performed in their districts under the new and old maps. In a deposition in December, Foltz testified the new maps were not meant to increase the GOP majority in the Legislature.

Of the 58 Republicans in the state Assembly at the time, 33 would pick up additional Republican voters. For instance, the district for freshman Rep. Mike Endsley (R-Sheboygan) would go from marginally to solidly Republican.

Those Republican representatives experiencing a drop in the number of Republican voters in their district under the redistricting plan would still have a strong Republican majority of voters. For instance, the district represented by Rep. Joel Kleefisch (R-Oconomowoc) would still be about 60% Republican despite losing a share of its GOP bases under the redistricting plan.

Legal secrecy agreements, eric mcleod, Michael Best & Freidrich, only republicans allowed, new maps where it was broken down by republicans in the district, none of that was done politically? Yes if you believe that you will believe that Scott walker is voluntarily meeting with DA Chisholm.

As for Attorney Earle, here he is testifying at the joint public hearing on redistricting.

Falk to hold “Your Voice, Your Wisconsin” campaign announcement tour

Zach W — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 05:17:09 +0000

From my email inbox comes news of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Kathleen Falk’s “Your Voice, Your Wisconsin” campaign announcement tour, which will begin tomorrow morning in Milwaukee.

During her “Your Voice, Your Wisconsin” tour, Falk will meet with community and recall leaders, local supporters and citizens concerned about Wisconsin’s future.

Falk’s “Your Voice, Your Wisconsin” tour will hold events in five cities throughout Wisconsin:

Tuesday February 7, 2012
Milwaukee
Time: 8:00-9:00 a.m.
Location: Milwaukee Area Technical College, Downtown Campus, 1015 North Sixth Street

Green Bay
Time: 12:00-1:00 p.m.
Location: Brown County Public Library Central Branch, 515 Pine Street, Boardroom

Wausau
Time: 6:00-7:00 p.m.
Location: Wausau Labor Temple, 318 South 3rd Avenue, Room 13

Wednesday February 8, 2012
Eau Claire
Time: 8:00-9:00 a.m.
Location: Chippewa Valley Technical College – Clairemont Campus, 620 West Clairemont Avenue Business and Education Center, Room 284B

La Crosse
Time: 12:00-1:00 p.m.
Location: La Crosse Public Library, 800 Main Street, Trustees Room

Peter, Paul & Debbie

Jeff Simpson — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 04:37:07 +0000

Former Michigan republican congressman and senate hopeful, is running against Senator Debbie Stabenow! Not having ideas to run on, Hoekstra went all in and bought a local ad during the Super Bowl. Instead of coming up with new ideas on how he was going to help turn Michigan’s economy around, he decided to go full fledged racist:

That commercial did not sit very well with most local leaders and clergy, including many republicans.

“It is very disturbing that Mr. Hoekstra’s campaign chose to use harmful negative stereotypes that intrinsically encourage anti-Asian sentiment,”the Asian & Pacific Islander American Vote group said in a statement.

On Twitter, Time magazine columnist and GOP consultant Mike Murphy called the 30-second spot “really, really dumb.”

Several Detroit ministers condemned the ad, too.

“The Asian woman speaking in this video would be no different than him having a black person speaking in slave dialect,” the Rev. Charles Williams II said in a statement Monday. “If Pete Hoekstra does not see any wrong in this commercial, he doesn’t deserve to be in the race.”

Just a quick aside…who lends their endorsement to Hoekstar and his negative, racist campaign? Why none other than Paul Ryan (R – Wall St.) (at least I think that is Paul Ryan not quite sure what he is attempting with his facial hair there). As pink Slip Paulie says

“This election will be a clear choice of what kind of people we want to be…”

I could not agree more and I choose to stand against racism. Where do you stand now paul?

“Phony” (A Song for Mitt Romney)

Phil Scarr — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 19:34:48 +0000

Honest Abortion?!?

Phil Scarr — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:18:09 +0000

I’m back riding that Ron Paul horse… From Matt Bors:

The Commercial

Phil Scarr — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 14:46:57 +0000

The chatter around the water cooler at the office this morning is about the Clint Eastwood commercial from last night’s SuperDooperBowl.

“Did you see it?”

“Yeah, I saw it, it was awesome!”

“What’s wrong with his voice?”

“Who cares! It’s great! He’s great! It was a great message!”

Last night, Twitter was ablaze with references to The Commercial. I would say that 80% of it was favorable. Don’t hold me to that number, it’s very much a guesstimation, but it’s directionally correct. Most people said they liked it. They especially liked the quick reference to the Madison protests. If you didn’t see it, here it is.

I’m in the 20% camp who didn’t like the commercial. I found the message manipulative, exploitative and, in retrospect, a hollow vision of America as a corporate controlled wasteland. The rah-rah of Corporate America, represented by the Chrysler automotive group, never referenced the destruction of good jobs in America through an endless series of trade agreements, championed by these corporate hacks, that moved work offshore and destroyed the manufacturing base of the midwest. With apologies to Saint Ronoldus, patron Saint of Crony Capitalism,

Chrysler isn’t the solution to our problem, Chrysler is the problem!

Forgive me if I can’t get all misty when a gravely-voiced Clint Eastwood tells me how we’re going to come back stronger than before. I’m sorry. I can’t do it. I’m not buying what Chrysler is selling through their High Plains Drifter spokesmodel. Because that’s what he is. A spokesmodel for a corporatist vision of America. The lone gunman. The guy who can overcome all obstacles. Except that that’s a lie. It’s the biggest lie we tell ourselves as Americans. The lie of the American Dream that anyone can make it. They can’t.

You see, the deck is stacked against the average American to a degree we haven’t seen in more than 100 years. Income inequality and intragenerational income rigidity have combined to make America pre-Revolutionary France. Born Rich – Die Rich. Born Poor – Die Poor. It’s now the American Way.

Forgive me for not cheering.

Scott Walker’s Inconsistency

Jeff Simpson — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:37:24 +0000

How scott walker has changed his views regarding politics in Wisconsin is enough for Dan Bice to write columns through retirement. In Bice’s latest column he points out how Scott Walker was so quick to criticize Governor Doyle on the conduct of one of his aides! Walker, who we know was perpetually campaigning for Governor(PS read this link), supplied us with some very interesting quotes that Mr. Bice shares!

“Unfortunately, we have a Governor and administration that condones unethical and illegal behavior,” Walker said in a statement on Jan. 24, 2006. “The people of Wisconsin deserve better.”

OOPS…but wait there’s more:

“Today’s indictment provides further confirmation that the Doyle administration is damaged and must be removed from the Capitol,” said Walker, a Wauwatosa Republican, of his Democratic predecessor. “Governor Doyle needs to purge his administration of individuals who place politics and special interests ahead of the people of Wisconsin.”

Walker went on to call on Doyle to adopt a series of reforms that the candidate was proposing.

“Little can be said to underscore the seriousness of this charge. I am hopeful that the people of Wisconsin will allow me the opportunity to clean up Madison with the same fervor that guided my reform movement in Milwaukee County.”

Wow I guess Zach was right, for Walker to be consistent Cullen Werwie and Brett Davis must go. Of course with Scott walker’s track record, it looks like their job is secure(at least until the successful recall election).

Bu the way what did Ciara Matthews, Walkers new campaign spokeswoman who really likes to talk have to say?

Ciara Matthews, spokeswoman for Walker’s campaign, did not return messages last week.

The real question is whats next? Stay tuned!