I seriously doubt it.

I’m a recent transplant to Wisconsin and I have to say, I’ve never seen a more enthusiastic NFL fan-base.  The rest of [...]]]> Public Policy Polling did a survey of voters and asked about some key NFL teams.  Based on their research, the Cowboys need to hand over their “America’s Team” status to the Packers.

I’m a recent transplant to Wisconsin and I have to say, I’ve never seen a more enthusiastic NFL fan-base.  The rest of America shares Wisconsin’s love of the Green & Gold.

22% of voters say the Packers are their favorite team in the NFL to 11% for the Cowboys, 8% for the Bears, Giants, and Steelers, 7% for the Saints, 6% for the Patriots, 4% for the Redskins, and 2% for the Jets. 24% say someone else is their favorite team or that they don’t have a favorite.

But it gets better… The Cowboys, who I grew up despising as a long-suffering Redskins fan, are actually America’s least favorite team.

The Cowboys did come out first on one question in our poll: Americans’ least favorite NFL team. 22% pick the Cowboys on that front to 11% for the Bears, 8% for the Packers, 7% for the Patriots and Redskins, 6% for the Steelers, 4% for the Jets and Giants, and 1% for the Saints.  The Cowboys may deliver awesome tv ratings but these numbers suggest that’s in large part because people are watching them and hoping they lose.

I know that’s the only reason I ever watch the Cowboys play.  As the old joke goes, “my two favorite teams are the Redskins and whoever is playing the Cowboys!”

Politically, since this is a political blog, the Packers are something that unite us as a people.

In an era of unprecedented political divisiveness liking the Packers better than the Cowboys is something Americans across the political spectrum can agree on- Democrats prefer the Packers 44-26, Republicans do 60-29, and independents do 44-30.

Timothy Noah at The New Republic refers to a new poll from The Pew Research Center:

…The really interesting finding is that the public does not accept the [...]]]> The American people aren’t buying the “both sides do it” meme being pumped out by the mainstream media.  Or the FoxNews “it’s all the Democrat Party’s (sic) fault!”

Timothy Noah at The New Republic refers to a new poll from The Pew Research Center:

…The really interesting finding is that the public does not accept the “objective” message spoon-fed by the press that both sides are equally at fault. Instead, it (accurately) assigns most of the blame to the Republican party. Forty percent say Republican leaders are more to blame, as against a mere 23 percent who say Democratic leaders are more to blame. A larger proportion blames the GOP than blame both parties (32 percent). And among independents, 38 percent say Republicans are more to blame, against 15 percent who say Democrats are. So much for the hack story line that partisanship and political games-playing is paralyzing Washington. Partisanship and political games-playing by Republicans is paralyzing Washington

Democrats in Congress are widely regarded as more cooperative, more honest & ethical, better able to manage the affairs of government and less extreme than Republicans.

What’s really important is that the “Independent” voter is more likely to vote Democratic this time around.

Now if American’s would just wise up and drive a stake through the heart of the modern GOP at the next election.

PolitiFact rates his statement

“Literally, it’s been wrong in almost every election,” Walker said. “It’s been completely off the mark. It’s [...]]]> Governor Scott Walker takes a shot at The St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll which found him trailing significantly in a in a poll asking if he should be recalled.  He misses… big.

PolitiFact rates his statement

“Literally, it’s been wrong in almost every election,” Walker said. “It’s been completely off the mark. It’s nowhere near any other poll that’s been out there. I don’t take any credence in that.”

as full-on false.

PolitiFact found that

In it’s most recent poll, St. Norbert wasn’t trying to predict an election outcome. It was  looking at whether the general public favored a recall. Secondly, GOP spokesman Sparks and Walker were wrong about the poll when it came to the 2010 results. The poll got that race right. And there’s no evidence that the poll has been consistently wrong in the past.

Ruh-roh, Republicans!

It turns out that there is a huge disparity between people who are polled via cell phone and people who are polled via a “landline.”  And SurveyUSA found that

Two-thirds of Americans age 25 [...]]]> With apologies to Elvis Costello, SurveyUSA looks at how the major polling firms treat people who only have cell phones.

It turns out that there is a huge disparity between people who are polled via cell phone and people who are polled via a “landline.”  And SurveyUSA found that

Two-thirds of Americans age 25 to 29 will be unreachable on a home phone by Election Day 2012, SurveyUSA estimates. Half of those age 18 to 24 and half of those age 30 to 34 will be unreachable on a home phone by Election Day 2012, SurveyUSA estimates.

I think that that makes a huge difference and the studies done by SurveyUSA demonstrate this.   Younger people tend to vote more Democratic and are more progressive in their views.

For instance, this article that shows that Obama Favorability 25 Points Higher Among Cell Phone Respondents Than Home-Phone Respondents in SurveyUSA Polling, 16-Points Higher in Marist Polling.  Who you call makes a difference!

The way polling firms handle cell phones varies greatly as this chart shows.

So consider the source when you read the poll.  I, for one, am going to re-think my use of Public Policy Polling based on this report.

In a poll conducted this week, PPP finds that Obama is going to benefit from a strongly unified Democratic base.

Obama gets [...]]]> Good news for Democrats in Ohio.  With the defeat of SB5, the momentum in the state clearly favors the Democrats going into 2012.  And new polling from Public Policy Polling demonstrates that.

In a poll conducted this week, PPP finds that Obama is going to benefit from a strongly unified Democratic base.

Obama gets 88-92% of his party’s vote against the six Republican candidates.  What makes that particularly notable is that his approval rating with Democratic voters is actually only 73%. But these numbers suggest that when election time comes around the party base will get around Obama whether they’re totally thrilled with him or not, and that’s a very good sign for his reelection prospects.

We’ve got the same thing going for us here in Wisconsin as we hurtle into recall season (despite a premature green light on the signature gathering).  We face another challenge though, one that the good people of Ohio did not have.

Let’s face it, it’s harder to recall a human than it is to recall a law.  Ohioans have the advantage on us.  Their ability to execute a “citizen’s veto” on an unpopular law means that they don’t have to face the prospect of a recall of their governor to overturn bad legislation.  As much as Democrats and labor would like to punish Kasich for his arrogance and stupidity, pulling the law off the books is a better approach.  Kasich may be wildly unpopular, but it becomes personal when you have to go after the man rather than his policies and legislation.

This is the challenge confronting us ‘Sconies.

Our success in this recall effort is directly linked to our ability to wrap Govenror Walker in his unpopular laws.  We must bind him tightly with these laws and with his rubber-stamp legislature.  We must show the people of Wisconsin that these laws were not the product of local concerns or local ideas to solve local problems but the product of a “legislation factory” in Washington known as ALEC.

Ask the important questions of people.  What does ALEC know about life in Wisconsin?  Does ALEC care that Milwaukee is one of the poorest cities in America?  Does ALEC care that the infant mortality rate in Milwaukee County is higher than anywhere else in America? What does ALEC know about the history and heritage of Wisconsin?  

Get irate!  How dare Governor Walker impose these outsider laws on us!  What ever happened to “state’s rights” here?  Whatever happened to “local control?”  You see?  That is how we win.  We turn their arguments back upon them, judo-style.  Don’t just focus on the content of the laws, focus on the way in which the laws came to Wisconsin in the first place.  Get people angry about the imposition of external ideas on local problems.  Hold the GOP to the same standards they claim to hold others.  We must drive a wedge between the GOP and the independent voter. 

If we fail to truss Governor Walker up very, very tightly with his ALEC laws, we will not succeed.  Some of us may find him personally reptillian in his deportment, many in the state find him “charming.”  This is what makes it so hard to target the man and not the laws.

And even when we  recall him, the laws will still be on the books.  It will take another strong push to overturn the Republican domination of the Assembly and the Senate.  Only then can these laws be rescinded.

The game’s afoot!

Aaron Rodgers is the most popular person PPP has ever polled on, anywhere, sports, politics, you name it. An amazing 89% of [...]]]> Silly, I know, but Public Policy Polling did a sports survey of Wisconsin and found that people in the state prefer Rodgers to Favre by more than 3-to-1!

Aaron Rodgers is the most popular person PPP has ever polled on, anywhere, sports, politics, you name it. An amazing 89% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him, to only 4% with an unfavorable one. Wisconsin voters are already ready to declare him the best Quarterback in Packers history- 36% grant him that distinction to 29% for Brett Favre, 23% for Bart Starr, and 2% for Arnie Herber.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled blog already in progress.

11. Now let’s turn to the political scene here in Wisconsin. Overall, do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the way Scott Walker is handling his job as [...]]]> From the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, “Wisconsin’s Free Market Think Tank,” comes this less than good news for Republican Governor Scott Walker.

11. Now let’s turn to the political scene here in Wisconsin. Overall, do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the way Scott Walker is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?
Strongly approve ……………………………………………. 24
Somewhat approve………………………………………….. 18
Somewhat disapprove …………………………………….. 11
Strongly disapprove ……………………………………….. 45
Don’t know / Refused……………………………………….. 2

You can check out the poll’s crosstabs HERE.

Now keep in mind that as “Wisconsin’s Free Market Think Tank,” WPRI isn’t exactly a bastion of liberalism, so the fact that their polling shows such strong disapproval for the job Scott Walker has done as governor certainly can’t be seen as a good thing, especially in the face of a looming recall of Gov. Walker.

PPP, a reputable polling organization, conducted surveys of Wisconsin voters from October 20th to the 23rd and found the state evenly [...]]]> Polling numbers from Public Policy Polling show the chances of recalling Governor Walker are slim unless Russ Feingold changes his mind and enters the race.  Walker is still unpopular, just not unpopular enough.

PPP, a reputable polling organization, conducted surveys of Wisconsin voters from October 20th to the 23rd and found the state evenly split on whether or not Governor Walker should be recalled.  And the only viable candidate they identified who could beat Walker is former Senator Russ Feingold.

Would you support or oppose recalling Scott Walker from office before his term is up?
Support ………………………………………………….. 48%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure………………………………………………….. 3%

If there was a recall election between Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Peter Barca, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Peter Barca …………………………………………… 42%
Undecided …………………………………………….. 10%

If there was a recall election between Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Tom Barrett, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

If there was a recall election between Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Jon Erpenbach, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Jon Erpenbach………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

If there was a recall election between Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Kathleen Falk, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 49%
Kathleen Falk…………………………………………..41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

If there was a recall election between Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Russ Feingold, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 46%
Russ Feingold …………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

If there was a recall election between Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Steve Kagen, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

If there was a recall election between Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Ron Kind, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Ron Kind…………………………………………………41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

If there was a recall election between Republican Scott Walker and Democrat David Obey, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
David Obey …………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

The only upside is that a number of these Democrats don’t have great name recognition yet. But it’s surprising to me that Walker has such strong support.

The data that included cell phones was +9 in favor of Democrats.

In the 2010 election, SurveyUSA contrasted the vote of home-phone and [...]]]> SurveyUSA reviewed data collected from the 2010 elections to evaluate how much polling or not polling cell phone users skews poll results.  I can’t say that I’m surprised by their findings.

The data that included cell phones was +9 in favor of Democrats.

In the 2010 election, SurveyUSA contrasted the vote of home-phone and cell-phone respondents in 7 different candidate elections. On average, cell-phone respondents voted 9 points more Democratic than did home-phone respondents. Had SurveyUSA not made special effort to reach the cell-phone respondents, its poll results would have been more Republican.

This is why it’s important to know who they call and how polling firms do their work.  A 9 point skew is massive.