Thankfully, we here in the fourth Congressional district will never have to worry about Dan Sebring serving three terms in the House of Representatives, because he’s going to get absolutely crushed in 2012, just as he did in 2010.

Not content with the electoral drubbing he received at the hands of Rep. Moore in 2010 – a drubbing which came in a huge wave year favoring Republicans, no less – Sebring is gearing up for another loss in 2012, and this time he’s bringing ramen noodles and mayonnaise sandwiches with him.

Reached for comment on the Paul Ryan Medicare voucher program, Sebring campaign Senior Staff Brian Bromberek made it clear where Sebring stands on the issue of vouchers for seniors receiving Medicare, stating, “The inaction of the White House and Democrats in Congress with regard to balancing the federal budget in concert with the lack of proposals from either side of the aisle other than that of Rep. Paul Ryan leave little question as to what side of the fence Mr. Sebring would be on pertaining to this issue.”

Bromberek went on to note, “The budget proposal brought forward by Chairman Ryan is a step in the right direction,” adding that it, “makes the hard choices that will bring economic prosperity back to America.”

I’m not sure that forcing senior citizens – many of whom have fixed incomes and can’t easily absorb increases to their expenses – to pay more for their health insurance is a “step in the right direction,” but apparently Dan Sebring has a different definition of what progress really is. While Sebring seems to believe that a return to the days when 30% of senior citizens were living in poverty is “progress,” I tend to believe it’s a serious step backwards.

No word yet on whether Sebring will be courting the “Mayflower descendant” vote in 2012, but given the fact that the 4th Congressional district is heavily Democratic, (with a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of +22 Democratic), I’m not sure that much of anything will help Sebring beat Gwen Moore. Given that Sebring couldn’t crack 30 percent of the vote in a huge wave year for Republicans, I’m finding it hard to believe he’ll be able to pull within 15 percent of Gwen Moore, much less beat her.

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We are compiling statements from poll workers who can attest to surges of “new” voter registrations without proper verification of residency (like trying to use advertising mailers addressed to “occupant”) and other anomalies at the polls yesterday. If you are a poll worker or voter who witnessed such things I need to hear from you asap!!

I understand that alleging vote fraud in the City of Milwaukee is par for the course for conservatives during an election year, allegations of widespread vote fraud have never been proven, and while I understand Dan Sebring is probably having a hard time coming to grips with the fact that he was absolutely crushed in a year that was obviously favorable to Republicans, one only needs to look at the composition of the Fourth Congressional District to understand that from the moment he declared himself a candidate, Dan Sebring was destined to lose to Rep. Moore.

Ed. Note: I’ve edited the post to include a screenshot of Sebring’s allegations, seeing as how he’s removed it from Facebook.

While I was prevented from videotaping the forum due to the ground rules agreed upon by the candidates, here are my thoughts from the copious notes I took.

• Dan Sebring was the first candidate to give opening remarks, and after a brief statement about himself and what he stands for, he went on the offensive against Rep. Moore, attacking her for her support of the federal stimulus, cap & trade legislation, and the health care reform legislation passed by Congress. As I watched Sebring give his opening remarks, I couldn’t help but notice that he made very little eye contact, reading from a note card as he attacked Rep. Moore.

• In contrast to Dan Sebring’s opening remarks, Rep. Moore used her opening statement to talk about the accomplishments of the 111th Congress, noting that she is proud of health care reform, proud of energy legislation, proud to have brought troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan, and proud to have been a part of one of the most productive sessions of Congress in a long time.

• Eddie Ayyash used his opening statement to note that he’d be an independent voice in Washington, saying that the two parties have failed to produce results for the citizens of the 4th Congressional District. Ayyash also noted just over 23 percent of Milwaukee’s residents live in poverty, saying that enough is enough.

• When the candidates were asked to share their thoughts on the Citizens United case that opened the floodgates for corporations to spend unlimited amounts of money (without disclosure), Sebring answered by admitting he didn’t know anything about the case. While I give Sebring credit for being honest, it’s striking to me that Sebring hasn’t bothered to educate himself in the slightest bit about a case that has a tremendous impact on candidates and elections. Speaking after Sebring, Eddie Ayyash spent a few moment providing Sebring with some background on the case, adding that he believes corporations shouldn’t be allowed to spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections. Adding to Ayyash’s points, Rep. Moore noted the direct result of the Citizens United case is corporations being allowed to spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections, while individuals like you and I are limited as to how much we can spend to influence elections through our contributions. Rep. Moore went on to add that in addition to being able to spend unlimited amounts of money, corporations also don’t have to disclose that they’re spending the money, leaving voters without the transparency they deserve in order to decide how much credence to lend to the claims being made by groups that don’t have to disclose their donors.

• When asked if they supported lowering the effective tax rate for corporations, Eddie Ayyash started things off by noting that there’s a difference between the actual corporate tax rate and the effective corporate tax rate, noting that corporations like Citibank and GE pay less in corporate taxes than many individuals pay. Sebring responded to the question with a short answer, saying he believes job creators need lower taxes. Rep. Moore answered the question by saying she believes we need to revert back to the tax rates in place during the presidency of Bill Clinton, adding that we can’t afford the Bush tax cuts that benefited the richest Americans.

• One of the more interesting exchanges – and not entirely because of the answers the candidates gave – was when the candidates were asked about their positions on illegal immigration. Remarkably, the three candidates shared a lot of common ground on immigration reform, with the exception of Dan Sebring’s stated belief that while he supports illegal immigrants currently in the U.S. having a path to citizenship, he believes that path should also include a penalty for those here illegally, including preventing those individuals from being able to own real estate, have credit cards, etc. However, what caught my interest was an exchange between two audience members sitting behind me after Eddie Ayyash noted that he immigrated to the U.S. from Jordan in 1989. After hearing that, one of the women turned to the other and said, “I wonder if he [Ayyash] is a citizen,” with the other woman adding, “I don’t know….Obama isn’t.”

• Another interesting exchange came during Rep. Moore’s answer to a question about how we bring jobs back to the U.S. As Rep. Moore was giving her response (she noted we need to actually start making stuff in America), Sebring supporters in the back of the room began making noise and interrupting her, prompting Rep. Moore to say, “I have the mic.”

• Interestingly enough, Molly McGartland, the far-right Republican candidate running against State Rep. Chris Sinicki, actually left the candidate forum at one point after at least one outburst from her from the back of the room.

He explains that people will have access to health credit lines which will allow them to pay for care they need from the provider of their choice. “This will allow patients to compare prices and foster a competitive market for health care that will control costs.”

So to recap, Dan Sebring’s health care reform “plan” would convert health insurance companies into the equivalent of credit card companies, with individuals and families then going into debt to those companies for any health care they’ve received. It’s also worth noting Sebring didn’t mention during his interview that his health care reform “plan” would also make any debt owed to these health care “financiers” by individuals or families would be non-dischargeable, meaning they couldn’t be eliminated through bankruptcy proceedings.

Here’s a look at a few of the provisions contained withing the Democratic health care reform legislation that Dan Sebring thinks are “nothing good:”

• Insurance companies can no longer denying children coverage based on a preexisting condition.
• Starting in 2014, insurance companies cannot deny coverage to anyone with preexisting conditions.
• Closes the Medicare prescription drug “donut hole” by 2020.
• Beginning in 2011, seniors in the gap will receive a 50 percent discount on brand name drugs.

While the health care reform legislation passed by Democrats was far from being perfect, I’d argue with Dan Sebring’s assertion that eliminating the ability of health insurance companies to deny coverage to children based on preexisting conditions is “nothing good,” and I’d argue that closing the Medicare prescription drug “donut hole” is certainly something good.

The ward by ward primary election analysis is in. For the sake of argument lets say it was an opinion poll. Votes in favor of Gwen Moore – 50.98%…votes NOT in favor of Gwen Moore – 48.77%. Taking into account independent and undecided voters and the fact that they rarely vote for incumbents, how can the pundits say Gwen Moore’s seat is “secure”??

Dan Sebring may want to believe Rep. Moore is in trouble, but here’s a few quick facts that undermine Sebring’s logic:

• The 4th District is a +22 Democratic district, according to the Cook PVI. Somehow I doubt all those Democrats who’ve propelled Rep. Moore (and her predecessors dating back to 1949) to big victories are all of a sudden going to vote for a far-right Republican like Dan Sebring.

• Despite having been running as a candidate for the 4th District for the better part of a year, Sebring just barely beat his opponent in the Republican primary – an opponent who had only been in the race for a few months no less. Sebring squeaked out a victory but just about 3,000 votes over Ken Lipinski, not exactly the mark of an electoral juggernaut.

• And perhaps the most damning fact working against Dan Sebring’s electoral ambitions is the fact that despite a supposed enthusiasm gap between energized Republicans and uninterested Democrats, there were over 39,000 votes cast for Democratic candidates in the 4th Congressional District’s Democratic primary, versus just over 25,000 votes cast in the Republican primary. Heck, Rep. Moore’s Democratic primary challenger, Paul Morel, got almost half as many votes as Dan Sebring did in his primary, despite having spent virtually no money.

While Dan Sebring may want to believe he’s got a chance against Gwen Moore, the reality is he’ll still lose in November by at least 15 points.