Blogging Blue

Now I’ve been saying our economy was in the toilet for a while now, and it turns out, I wasn’t too far off base, at least according to to the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER):

The world’s stock markets suffered another round of falls yesterday as the body regarded as the arbiter of US recessions said the American economy’s 73-month economic expansion ended in December 2007.

The news came as surveys of business confidence across continents displayed further catastrophic declines. The US economy decreased at an annualised rate of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2008, having grown by an annualised 2.8 per cent in the second quarter. Although it thus does not yet qualify as a recession according to the common definition of two successive quarters of negative growth, the US National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee employs a much more flexible definition of recession, as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity.”

Manufacturing in the US contracted in November at the fastest pace in 26 years, putting American factories at the sharp end of a global industrial slump, according to the Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management’s factory index. At 36.2, the reading is at its lowest level since 1982. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Similar measures from China, the UK, the euro area, and Russia also all dropped to record lows.

Interestingly, while the NBER thinks the nation’s been in a recession since December 2007, back in April of 2008 President Bush said we absolutely weren’t in a recession:

And while we’re at it, I think the announcement by the NBER debunks former McCain campaign economic advisor Phil Gramm’s argument that America was just a nation of whiners and that we were in a “mental recession,” not an actual recession.

…for his Senate seat in 2010.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) announced that he “intends” to run for re-election in 2010 at a press conference in Phoenix this afternoon.

“I intend to run again and will make an announcement at an appropriate time,” McCain told reporters. McCain added he expects to face a “tough race” in 2010.

Sen. McCain should face a relatively tough re-election, given the fact that Arizona seems to be trending blue and he only won his home state by nine percentage points in the presidential election. I’m willing to bet we’re going to see a lot more of the “Maverick McCain” leading up to 2010, because Sen. McCain will probably have to make himself seem more moderate than he was during the 2008 presidential election if he’s going to make his path to re-election easier.

To be honest, I was initially a little surprised Sen. McCain is planning on seeking re-election, but then I remembered that he’s got a huge ego, and he won’t be content to fade into the relative obscurity of retired life.

Now I’m not counting my chickens before they’re hatched, because there’s still a few days until the 2008 elections are over, but in honor of a contest being run by Jay over at Folkbum, I’d like to post a few predictions.

Presidential Election Winner: Obama/Biden
Electoral College Count: 302-236
U.S. House of Representatives Split: 257 Democrats - 188 Republicans
U.S. Senate Split: 55 Democrats - 43 Republicans - 2 Independents
Wisconsin State Assembly Split: 55 Democrats - 43 Republicans - 1 Independent
Wisconsin State Senate Split: 20 Democrats - 13 Republicans

I’m also going to go out on a limb and say Obama wins the state of Wisconsin by a margin of 53% to 47%.

At least, that’s the thought of Ken Duberstein, the Chief of Staff for President Ronald Reagan from 1988 to 1989:

“I think [selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate] has very much undermined the whole question of John McCain’s judgment. You know what most Americans I think realized is that you don’t offer a job, let alone the vice presidency, to a person after one job interview. Even at McDonald’s, you’re interviewed three times before you get a job.”

Now I understand Sen. McCain took a gamble in putting Gov. Sarah Palin on the GOP ticket, and I’ll acknowledge she’s done wonders to energize the Republican Party’s base, but shouldn’t someone who’s going to be a heartbeat away from the presidency have more than one brief interview before she’s picked to be on the ticket?

H/T to Subject to Complete Defeasance.

A few weeks ago, I blogged about Sen. John McCain’s statement that he’d “hate to live in Milwaukee,” and the Obama campaign has picked up on that quote, running a really funny web ad:

And I’ve got a message for Sen. Biden: you’re welcome in Milwaukee any time.

For all the controversy Sen. John McCain and his supporters have tried to drum up about Sen. Barack Obama’s supposed socialist ideas when it comes to taxes, Sen. McCain himself has his own dirty little secret: he’s supported tax plans that tax the wealthy so the middle class can have tax relief (aka “spreading the wealth”):

My favorite quote? Sen. McCain saying, “When you are….when you reach a certain level of comfort, there’s nothing wrong with paying somewhat more.” Couple that with Sen. McCain’s previously stated support for middle class tax relief at the expense of the wealthy, and you’ve got all the makings of a closet socialist.

A couple of random notes:

First comes news CC Goldwater, conservative icon Barry Goldwater’s granddaughter, has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama instead of Sen. John Mccain, who like CC Goldwater calls Arizona home:

Being Barry Goldwater’s granddaughter and living in Arizona, one would assume that I would be voting for our state’s senator, John McCain. I am still struck by certain ‘dyed in the wool’ Republicans who are on the fence this election, as it seems like a no-brainer to me.

Myself, along with my siblings and a few cousins, will not be supporting the Republican presidential candidates this year. We believe strongly in what our grandfather stood for: honesty, integrity, and personal freedom, free from political maneuvering and fear tactics. I learned a lot about my grandfather while producing the documentary, Mr. Conservative Goldwater on Goldwater. Our generation of Goldwaters expects government to provide for constitutional protections. We reject the constant intrusion into our personal lives, along with other crucial policy issues of the McCain/Palin ticket.

Speaking of endorsements, former White House press secretary Scott McClellan told CNN Thursday he’s voting for Barack Obama. Now sure, I suppose McClellan’s endorsement of Sen. Obama shouldn’t be that surprising, given McClellan’s scathing critique of President Bush in his memoir last spring, but it’s still newsworthy - at least in my opinion.

Also of note is a recent article on Politico.com, aptly titled, “Blame game: GOP forms circular firing squad.” Of particular note in that article is the following:

A senior Republican strategist, speaking with authority about the view of the party’s establishment, issued a wide-ranging critique of the McCain high command: “Lashing out at past Republican Congresses, … echoing your opponent’s attacks on you instead of attacking your opponent, and spending 150,000 hard dollars on designer clothes when congressional Republicans are struggling for money, and when your senior campaign staff are blaming each other for the loss in The New York Times [Magazine] 10 days before the election, you’re not doing much to energize your supporters.

Now typically it’s the Democrats who form a circular firing squad in election years, so it’s refreshing to see the GOP in such disarray for a change. Let’s just hope this keeps up until November 4th.

Last week Sunday, Sen. Barack Obama received the endorsement of Gen. Colin Powell, who cited Sen. Obama’s standing as a “transformational figure” as one reason for his endorsement. However, while Sen. Obama has been receiving a lot of endorsements, Sen. McCain has been as well, receiving the endorsement of supporters of al-Qaeda:

Supporters of al-Qaeda have said they would prefer Republican candidate John McCain to win the US election because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In a message broadcast on the password-protected al-Hesbah site, the group said they would also welcome a pre-election terror attack on the US because that would make a McCain win more likely.

In an endorsement that will not be welcomed by Mr McCain’s flagging campaign, the group said that if al-Qaeda wants to exhaust the US militarily and economically, the “impetuous” Republican presidential candidate is the better choice.

“This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,” the message said.

“Then, al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.”

That’s a heck of an endorsement for Sen. McCain!

Last week Wednesday, Democratic Rep. John Murtha said his home base of western Pennsylvania is racist and that racism could reduce Barack Obama’s victory margin in the state by 4 percentage points. I think it was a stupid thing for Rep. Murtha to say about his own constituents for a variety of reasons, but apparently Sen. John McCain agrees with Rep. Murtha.

H/T to The Brawler.