Could health care reform help Democrats in November?

Could the health care reform bill passed by Democrats in the House and Senate and signed into law by President Obama help Democrats in the November midterm elections?

While the Democrats’ victory on health care reform came at a cost, it was an important victory, and as CQ Politics notes the victory was ugly and it was narrow, but it was also sweet, and it was historic and, politically, it was big. However, what remains to be seen is whether the Democratic victory on health care reform will be a boon or bust for Democrats in the November midterm elections. Most polls taken during the lengthy health care reform debate showed health care reform as being unpopular, but a recent USA Today/Gallup poll showed that public opinion had turned in favor of health care reform, with 49 percent of respondents saying it was a “good thing” that health care reform passed, with 40 percent of respondents disagreeing.

As the less controversial aspects of the Democratic health care reform legislation are among the first to be implemented (tax credits for small businesses, etc.), by November the Democratic health care reform plan could be much more popular than it is now, especially if it helps more small businesses obtain health insurance for their employees. The passage of health care reform may also serve to energize the Democratic base, and the behavior of folks from the Tea Party movement – behavior which has included violence and threats of violence – may also serve as motivation for Democrats and independents who simply don’t condone the type of behavior some on the right have started to engage in.

I’m betting that the more Republicans condone the behavior of the radical right, the worse they’ll do in November. Even if they don’t disavow the actions of the radical right, the GOP may still pick up some seats in November, but I’m willing to bet they won’t pick as many seats as most pundits would have predicted, because unless the behavior of the radical right improves dramatically between now and November, most normal folks (i.e. those not absolutely insane) will be tired of the rhetoric and the behavior of the radical right.

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1 thought on “Could health care reform help Democrats in November?

  1. It’s certainly true that the most egregious and awful parts of the law won’t kick in until long after November. Heck, most not until 2014, well after the next Presidential election. Hey, I wonder if that’s a coincidence?

    On a related note, I lost whatever last shred of respect I had in Paul Krugumann. There is no longer any economist left, he’s pure 100% political pundit. On This Week, the question was posed, that given the record of kicking the stone down the road – specifically on medicare cuts and the “cadillac plans” tax pushed back to 2018, will they ever be enacted?

    Krugman’s answer was that it didn’t really matter now, but that they’d be kicking in about the time we’re really concerned about budget issues…that around 2018-2020 fiscal issues will be at the forefront. No legitimate economist would make an idiotic comment like that – that we don’t really have to worry about the budget for 8-10 years because that’s when people will really be concerned about it. Only an political hack, an apologist for the administration whose time will be up by then (again, what a shocking coincidence) would say the budget concerns can wait. Apparently Mr. Award winning economist somewhere along the way, has forgotten about this thing called inflation. Maybe he did a lot of drugs & blacked out through the 70’s or something.

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