According to his Facebook page, far-right Republican House candidate Dan Sebring seems to think Rep. Gwen Moore is in trouble this year:
The ward by ward primary election analysis is in. For the sake of argument lets say it was an opinion poll. Votes in favor of Gwen Moore – 50.98%…votes NOT in favor of Gwen Moore – 48.77%. Taking into account independent and undecided voters and the fact that they rarely vote for incumbents, how can the pundits say Gwen Moore’s seat is “secure”??
Dan Sebring may want to believe Rep. Moore is in trouble, but here’s a few quick facts that undermine Sebring’s logic:
- The 4th District is a +22 Democratic district, according to the Cook PVI. Somehow I doubt all those Democrats who’ve propelled Rep. Moore (and her predecessors dating back to 1949) to big victories are all of a sudden going to vote for a far-right Republican like Dan Sebring.
- Despite having been running as a candidate for the 4th District for the better part of a year, Sebring just barely beat his opponent in the Republican primary – an opponent who had only been in the race for a few months no less. Sebring squeaked out a victory but just about 3,000 votes over Ken Lipinski, not exactly the mark of an electoral juggernaut.
- And perhaps the most damning fact working against Dan Sebring’s electoral ambitions is the fact that despite a supposed enthusiasm gap between energized Republicans and uninterested Democrats, there were over 39,000 votes cast for Democratic candidates in the 4th Congressional District’s Democratic primary, versus just over 25,000 votes cast in the Republican primary. Heck, Rep. Moore’s Democratic primary challenger, Paul Morel, got almost half as many votes as Dan Sebring did in his primary, despite having spent virtually no money.
While Dan Sebring may want to believe he’s got a chance against Gwen Moore, the reality is he’ll still lose in November by at least 15 points.
This just in – challenger to a heavily favored incumbent in a gerrymandered district is trying to spin it that he’s really got a chance.
Hmm. Seems I’ve read the same thing (here even) that Sensenbrenner’s in danger.
Of all the lies candidates tell, “I have a chance” is probably the one we should be least concerned with.
I’m pretty sure I’ve predicted here that Kolosso will lose to Sensenbrenner, though I could be wrong.
OOOOOOO what a psychic. He only foretold a 9million term rep. would be re-elected. Watch out Miss Cleo……
I agree that the gerrymandered districts suck, unfortunately its a bipartisan problem.
considering the makeup of the 4th union, lapdogs and entitlements as a lifestyle of course dems should always carry the district. Dems are losing around the state where the working class and families who are struggling to make ends meet understand that they need to remove the “we own your paycheck” democratic mentality that that party has from power, that is not the 4th.
opps comma is in the wrong place that should be union lapdogs,
Way to pick out the one Democrat who isn’t in trouble! I’ll be expecting a similiar post about Tammy Baldwin tomorrow. 😛
Also, I wouldn’t say at all that the district Gwen Moore represents is gerrymandered. Just because it is heavily tilted one way doesn’t make it gerrymandered. The district reprents the City of Milwaukee, which happens to be Democrat. That’s just a fact and there’s nothing wrong with that the way I see it.
I don’t think Ron Kind is in trouble, or Tammy Baldwin for that matter.
The 4th was very carefuly gerrymandered as was the 5th. It was a political trade off at the time. And it’s the reason that Tom Barrett is currently mayor of Milwaukee. The legislature essentially eliminated his district.
The legislature didn’t essentially eliminate his district; they actually eliminated it because we lost a seat after the census.
Yes the state lost a seat but the legislature still gets to decide how to draw the map…
Gwen was my Congresswoman when I lived in Harambee, I moved to Fox Point about a year ago and believed I would no longer have to be represented by this wind-bag. Unfortunately she looks to be back (or more accurately I am somehow back in her district). I pray that the north shore has the common sense to help vote Congresswoman Moore and her rambling prose out of office in 9 days.