According to his Facebook page, far-right Republican House candidate Dan Sebring seems to think Rep. Gwen Moore is in trouble this year:
The ward by ward primary election analysis is in. For the sake of argument lets say it was an opinion poll. Votes in favor of Gwen Moore – 50.98%…votes NOT in favor of Gwen Moore – 48.77%. Taking into account independent and undecided voters and the fact that they rarely vote for incumbents, how can the pundits say Gwen Moore’s seat is “secure”??
Dan Sebring may want to believe Rep. Moore is in trouble, but here’s a few quick facts that undermine Sebring’s logic:
- The 4th District is a +22 Democratic district, according to the Cook PVI. Somehow I doubt all those Democrats who’ve propelled Rep. Moore (and her predecessors dating back to 1949) to big victories are all of a sudden going to vote for a far-right Republican like Dan Sebring.
- Despite having been running as a candidate for the 4th District for the better part of a year, Sebring just barely beat his opponent in the Republican primary – an opponent who had only been in the race for a few months no less. Sebring squeaked out a victory but just about 3,000 votes over Ken Lipinski, not exactly the mark of an electoral juggernaut.
- And perhaps the most damning fact working against Dan Sebring’s electoral ambitions is the fact that despite a supposed enthusiasm gap between energized Republicans and uninterested Democrats, there were over 39,000 votes cast for Democratic candidates in the 4th Congressional District’s Democratic primary, versus just over 25,000 votes cast in the Republican primary. Heck, Rep. Moore’s Democratic primary challenger, Paul Morel, got almost half as many votes as Dan Sebring did in his primary, despite having spent virtually no money.
While Dan Sebring may want to believe he’s got a chance against Gwen Moore, the reality is he’ll still lose in November by at least 15 points.