Do You Want to Play a Game?

Ready?  Here we go!

Question: What do Rhode Island, Louisiana, Wyoming, Hawaii, Alaska and Wisconsin all have in common?

Answer: They all have stagnant or shrinking economies according to data compiled by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

Sad Scooter Cannot Escape His Record...

It’s so not working, Wisconsin!


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17 thoughts on “Do You Want to Play a Game?

  1. Having been to Wyoming recently where coal mining, oil exploration, natural gas fracking, and uranium mining are all increasing and driving up housing and other costs as miners ‘flood’ into the area, I am not so sure WY will stay on this list.

  2. Nice try Phil. The data you reference is a 6 month FORECAST. And those numbers include government workers, which seems odd to me, but oh well..

    The facts are: In 2011 Wisconsin’s GDP grew at 2.3% vs. 1.9% nationally. 2012 projection is 3.2% vs. 3.1% nationally. Those numbers include government employees as well.

    source U.S Dept. of Commerce; US Dept. of Labor

  3. First, kudos for using data. So few conservatives ever do.

    And yes, that is a projection. It’s an estimate based on economic models which have been reasonably accurate in the past.

    Based on my research, yes, the state’s GDP has grown and that is a good thing.

    But, there are a couple of problems with the data you cited. The Chase document data is based on non-farm payroll changes.

    Those numbers include government employees as well.

    No, they don’t.

    Definition of ‘Nonfarm Payroll’
    A statistic researched, recorded and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding the following employees:

    – general government employees
    – private household employees
    – employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals
    – farm employees

    This monthly report also includes estimates on the average work week and the average weekly earnings of all non-farm employees.

    As for the Philadelphia Fed data, the employment metric is based on initial unemployment claims.

    But I’m not sure why you would argue that

    those numbers include government workers, which seems odd to me

    Why is that odd?

  4. @ Phil the left coast liberal whhat is the long term outlook for Wisconsin? Do you have that data? Did you think Scooter would turn things around in his first year?

    How is ILlinous doing?

    1. That is the long-term outlook for Wisconsin (6 month projection). Click on the link, you’ll see the data.

      How is ILlinous doing?

      If by “ILlinous” you mean Illinois, I’ve already written about that here and here. Short answer? Illinois is poised for growth. Wisconsin? Not so much.

      Looking at the 2011 Coincidental Economic Measurement data from the Fed, column 2 is Illinois and column 3 is Wisconsin (sorry about the formatting):

      Jan-11 2.39 2.39
      Feb-11 2.16 0.94
      Mar-11 1.86 1.18
      Apr-11 1.59 0.86
      May-11 0.16 0.30
      Jun-11 -0.45 0.10
      Jul-11 -0.37 -1.04
      Aug-11 -0.87 -0.89
      Sep-11 0.91 -0.97
      Oct-11 1.81 -0.70
      Nov-11 1.81 -0.51
      Dec-11 2.39 -0.82

      Note how Illinois is on an upward trend and Wisconsin is heading downward? That’s what happens when you have a political party in Madison running things who have no idea how economics works. Illinois may be struggling with a pension deficit, but they’re still growing their economy. Wisconsin is not.

      Austerity measures during a recession are a very bad idea.

    1. Who’s Jeff?

      If you’ve got other data to share that extends state economic projections further than 6 months, please share with the group. Otherwise, stop whining.

      As John Maynard Keynes famously said,

      The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.

    1. Olaf:
      1. The CBO report, I’m not sure what you’re driving at. What’s the point of the link? To show that there are longer-term projections? I don’t see anything in that report that is appropriate for state-level data.

      2. The link you provided was a link to the article about the Illinois budget challenges, not to their economic outlook. Illinois has a stronger economy than Wisconsin, but tougher budget challenges. Two different problems.

      3. The PowerPoint that links offers no information as to how their numbers and projections are constructed. And the Department of Revenue is not an unbiased source. They have a vested political interest to keep Scooter in Madison.

  5. @Phil the CBO article was just that to show YOUR s months is not long term, but short term unless you are a weatherman you and I both know it is short term.

    ILL was to show that more goes into forcasting than just what you spoonfed us.

    Wis Rev department is no political and don’t care which side is in charge and the results don’t match with your post so it is just tossed aside. I get your a left coast liberal and all things on the right are bad.

    1. You’re not making any sense so I find it nearly impossible to respond to you.

      1. CBO article is irrelevant. Not state data.
      2. Illinois article is irrelevant. Not a growth projection.
      3. WI Rev report has no supporting data for the charts.

      You have much more work to do if you want to convince me you know what you’re talking about.

  6. @Phil now where in the article does it say this is a long term forecast and Wisconsin just might be at 0% and not a decline. Look at the Key. So it is YOU that are reading it as long term!

  7. This chart shows that Michigan and Alabama are doing great.
    Why should we follow their lead ?

    1. Understand that the chart merely shows projected growth over the next 6 months based on a number of economic indicators. I don’t think Alabama has much to tell us (it’s not a manufacturing state), but Michigan might. The massive Federal stimulus to support the auto industry kept the flame from going out in Detroit. And now they’re starting to grow up from their deep, deep pit.

      Wisconsin does not have a similar deep pit. But it’s clear that whatever we are doing in the state to stimulate growth is not working. Certainly, Governor Walker turning down two rounds of Federal dollars (for the high speed rail and for the health exchanges) did nothing to boost our economy (although his rich corporate donors reacted favorably).

      Wisconsin needs new leadership that is not ideologically shackled to particular crony capitalists (road building and health insurance, for instance) if we’re going to get our economy moving forward again.

      Governor Walker is not that leader.

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