I’m thinking the answer is yes…
There are more political lessons to be drawn, other than the fact that this administration is full of liars and that Obama usually only helps non-wealthy constituency groups when he is scrambling for his own electoral survival. The political lesson is that pressure matters, but so does leverage. The overall atmosphere on this particular problem – undocumented immigrants who arrived as kids – came to a boiling point through the actions of an entire activism eco-system. There were nationwide marches for immigration reform a few years ago, and undocumented college students bravely marched openly to bring this issue to light. These kids embarrassed the administration, and it must have shown in the polls in terms of dampening enthusiasm to vote in 2012 among Latinos. But even this was not enough.
It was only fear of the Republicans outflanking Obama to the left that got the administration to move. When the issue came to a head, and Obama feared that he would pay a political price from the Republicans, all of the excuses – the terrible Republican opposition, a divided country, an intractable Congress with a 60 vote threshold – suddenly evaporated. Faced with losing his own hide, Obama governed.
This is a reasonable template for how to get the Obama administration to act. It’s very very hard, and requires a lot of organizing to raise an issue to level where the Obama administration feels heat and embarrassment. It’s similar to the administration’s stance on gay marriage. Prior to his announced support for gay marriage, Obama backtracked on an executive order banning discrimination among government contractors. He promised to sign the order, and then didn’t. Gay billionaire donors were outraged, and began witholding money from his campaign. And since Obama needed their money to make up for the general lack of excitement for his reelection on both Wall Street and among his small dollar donors, he acted. He tepidly announced personal support for gay marriage, with no corresponding legal or political support. This isn’t a small deal; the President carries moral weight. But it happened because he needed the money.
I’m beginning to understand how President Obama operates politically. Rather than make tough, principled decisions based on what he believes, Obama would rather wait as long as possible before making a decision, then make said decision once he’s been forced to – either by his allies or his opponents.
While immigration is the latest example, health care reform is another perfect example of what I’m talking about. Rather than taking the lead on health care reform and coming out with a plan of his own on how to make the necessary reforms, President Obama instead allowed Democrats in Congress to muddle through the process for the better part of a year before he finally stepped in and showed some leadership. Perhaps he was simply trying to defer to Democrats in Congress, but voters didn’t elect President Obama to defer – they elected him to lead.
In rebuttal; NO,absolutely not, President Obama does not think we’re stupid!
“You have a president who in the last days of his campaign began to understand that he was going to have to make fundamental changes in everything he had intended. We’ll never know what an Obama presidency absent the catastrophe would have looked like.”
For one of the best analyses of Obama’s temperament, character, reasoning, read:
“Obama, Explained” by James Fallows: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/03/obama-explained/308874/
Consider:
1. The second or first greatest recession surprised even the experts late in Oct. 2008.
2. Obama had to improvise or form a plan B to hit the ground running,
3. As with any new president, it is a learning experience.
4. Obama had only two years in his first term with the support of a Dem majority.
5. For better or worse, Obama, politically, is inclusive, non-combative, a centrist, compromiser, uniter, reaches out, and well, you get my impression.
Zach, my primary pick was Hillary; would she have done better and more than Obama? In some ways, I think yes, in other ways, no.