I’m no statistician, or political or social scientist, but it seems pretty clear to me that there’s every reason to feel optimistic about defeating Scott Walker in 2014. The numbers seem to support my optimism.
In the 2012 gubernatorial recall election, 1,335,585 people voted for Walker while 1,164,480 voted for Barrett. That’s a difference of 171,105 votes.
Five months later in the general election, 1,407,966 people voted for Mitt Romney. 1,620,985 people voted for Barack Obama.
The Republicans turned out only 72,381 more voters in the general than they did for the recall. The Democrats turned out 456,505 more voters.
It appears to me that the repubs may be reaching their plateau with 1.4 or so million voters. Democrats appear to be able to reach over 1.6 million.
So, I’ll ask all of you reading this. Who are those 456,505 democratic voters that skipped the recall but voted in the general? Why didn’t they vote in the recall? And how do we get, say, 200,000 of them out in 2014?