New Marquette poll shows Walker with slight lead over Burke among likely voters

The new Marquette poll is out, and while it’s certainly not as encouraging as the previous poll, it’s certainly not all doom and gloom.

Republican Gov. Scott Walker leads Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50% to 43% among likely voters in the latest survey by the Marquette University Law School.

That represents a change from other Wisconsin surveys in recent weeks — including a Marquette poll two weeks ago — that showed the race essentially tied.

The Marquette results released Wednesday underscore just how much turnout matters to the outcome of the contest for governor. Walker’s gains were not among the broader population of registered voters, but among those who said they were certain to vote on Nov. 4. That’s the group defined as “likely voters” in Marquette’s polling.

The race is much tighter and has changed little among all registered voters — with Walker leading Burke 46% to 45%.

As pollster Charles Franklin noted, the swings in his polling could likely be attributed to shifts in motivation/enthusiasm among voters on both sides of the political spectrum. It’s also notable that with less than a week left before election day, the latest Marquette poll has 7% of the electorate still undecided on which candidate they’ll vote for.

Ultimately, what this latest Marquette poll shows is that this election is going to be won by turnout. If Democrats can get their voters to the polls – which is always a challenge in non-presidential year elections – then Scott Walker will lose this election.


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10 thoughts on “New Marquette poll shows Walker with slight lead over Burke among likely voters

  1. Don’t buy that likely voter thing, they leave out 1/7 of the voting that population that is “very likely” or “50-50” to vote. That group favored Burke by 20 percent in the poll, and most of those people WILL VOTE.

    Trust the Registered Voter number, which is Walker +1, and really is no different than the last 4 Marquette reg voter polls (average difference- Walker +1.25). GOTV, and the Dems will win on Tuesday. The Walker/WisGOP wouldn’t be lying, smearing, and race-baiting if that statement wasn’t true. Stop accepting this GOP-agenda that “Walker opens up a lead” as reality, or even stating it, because it lets the zombie lie take hold, and can hold back some from voting. Which might have been what Chucky Franklin had in mind with this tight “likely voter” screen.

  2. Never heard of a pollster just all of a sudden up and changing their methodology, particularly for the last poll. Nothing indicates a change in the expected electorate. Very weird.

  3. This I think is luck of the draw though, also it seemed if you do the weighting compared to the total R+D turnout for each county, you wind up with the redness of the result enhanced by 1.0% using the 2010 results and 1.5% using the 2012 results.

    I don’t think Marquette is intentionally biased but it’s going on previous data not accounting for the circumstances of the Recall. (The non intentional biased as I pointed out, is the demographic for Brown County – aka the box of people who are female, live in Brown County, are between 45 and 59, and graduated high school but didn’t go to college is strangely off compared to previous years. )

  4. A Burke win wouldn’t shock me, but it would surprise me. It seems like the Republicans have a lot of momentum nationwide. As of this comment Nate Silver’s site is giving them a 64% chance to take the senate. I tend to believe the enthusiasm gap is legit. I saw a statistic a few weeks back on CNN (or possibly MSNBC I flip back and forth while I get ready for work) that said Obama’s approval rating is actually two points lower that GW Bush’s was in 2006 when the GOP got hammered in the midterms.

  5. Not good, really. For a state that claims to dislike negative ads, folks sure seem to be rewarding Walker for his constant barrage of desperate attacks. Democrats are going to have to suck it up and get out and vote even if they’re afraid they won’t get their particular pony under Burke. What should be crystal clear by now is no lefty savior capable of winning state-wide is waiting in the wings and that tired old trope of things need to get worse before they get better is just that, tired…old. We are poised for Wisconsin to become the next Kansas with another Walker term, ie, utterly wrecked.

  6. LOL slight.

    Delusion, Burke is toast and was fired from Trek. Next time pick an actual qualified candidate to take on the best governor in the country.

    1. OK, if Burke is toast, what are we left with to govern the state? Consider, if Burke is so inept how did she come up with $4.5M to contribute to her own campaign coffers?

      Oh and quit plagiarizing, I used the word, “delusion” to describe right wing trolls several times already.

      Signed, NOT expecting a truthful answer.

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