A few thoughts on tonight’s Iowa caucus results

Just a few thoughts on tonight’s Iowa caucus results:

  • Perhaps it’s just my own bias showing, but I thought it was awfully presumptuous of Hillary Clinton’s campaign to declare victory over Bernie Sanders, especially with such a narrow margin separating the two. Apparently Clinton is basing her declaration of victory on the presumption she’ll win slightly more delegates thanks to her control of establishment super delegates – and not necessarily because she’ll win more caucus votes.
  • Speaking of Bernie Sanders, even though he didn’t win the Iowa caucuses, the fact that he had such a strong showing means the Democratic presidential primary is very far from over and may prove to be as interesting as the 2008 Democratic primaries.
  • As I write this it looks like Rand Paul is going to finish ahead of dynasty candidate Jeb Bush, leaving me to wonder how long Bush will limp along in the race.
  • Shortly after the Iowa caucus results started coming in it became clear Martin O’Malley wasn’t going to have a good night, so it wasn’t a surprise when he suspended his campaign. Interesting fact: tomorrow is the deadline for candidates to declare for the Maryland Senate seat that’s up for election this year.
  • And one last thought: as I listen to Donald Trump give his concession speech, I can’t help but think his speeches are just stream of consciousness word salad in which he tosses together random words and thoughts to see if folks are paying attention.

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4 thoughts on “A few thoughts on tonight’s Iowa caucus results

  1. Go Bernie Go!
    “One person, one vote”
    “A Political Revolution”
    I’m starting to get that feeling back!

  2. I think Rubio’s third place “victory” speech was an appeal for all the establishment R’s who are still backing one of the lesser candidates to support him. I’m very curious to see what Trumps numbers do in the next week.

    Meanwhile, with Bernie outperforming expectations and having a huge lead in NH, it is hard to argue that he doesn’t have momentum. However fivethirtyeight argues IA and NH are some of his best states, and he doesn’t have much support among moderates and minorities. I guess we will wait and see.

    The fivethirtyeight article i mentioned;

  3. A lot more people cast ballots this year than in 2012, and I think the more that issues of substance are covered in detail and debated, the larger turnouts will be. ABC reported that Dems had 171,000 (second highest next to 239,000 in 2008), far more than 2012 when it fell to only 25,000. Reps this time turned out a record 180,000, more than the previous high in 2012 of 121,000.

    With the vote difference of less than 0.5% between Clinton and Sanders, it was a virtual tie, quite a difference from polls taken last fall. Caucus goers said that income and wealth inequality were their top interest, followed by the economy and civil rights. The “populist” view seems to resonate in the state among voters, as it has returned in 2016, resulting in a much higher turnout than 2012. The Obama 2008 campaign ran in many ways as a populist, and that resulted in the record Dem turnout. Clinton had the advantage of having a larger campaign organization set up in Iowa, as well as having set up its machinery months before Sanders, so Sanders did remarkably well, with their stature growing the more the campaign could be brought out to the public.

    Hopefully the turnout is great for Dems on February 9 in New Hampshire, as voters can inform themselves by viewing the Democratic Town Hall tomorrow night, Feb. 3, at 7:00pm on CNN,
    with a new Debate scheduled for Thursday, Feb. 4, at 8:00pm CST on MSNBC.

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