Coronavirus computer modelers revise their dates for easing state shutdowns

I am essentially just passing on information here. But it looks like Governor Evers date is reasonable under this current model.

Epidemiologists at the IHME based their projected “threshold” dates for loosening restrictions on the date when the model suggests the rate of new daily infections will fall below 1 per million residents in a given state. They acknowledged that the dates are later, on average, than they were on Friday.

The other discouraging word is that the projected U.S. death toll through Aug. 4 has been raised, from 60,308 to 65,976. There’s a wide interval of uncertainty to that figure: The institute says it could end up as low as 45,375 or as high as 124,120.

“The main driver of these later predictions is the increase in reported deaths since the last release, as well as predictions of longer (and flatter) epidemic peaks for several states,” they wrote in today’s status report.

If some states loosen their restrictions before the threshold date, that would presumably change the model’s assessments for the eventual number of cases and deaths — and probably not in a good way.