Marquette University Polling released their latest poll results which included questions on the recall and on collective bargaining. The answers people gave go a long way towards understanding why Falk is not getting traction with the state wide electorate.
The top issue people have is jobs. Not collective bargaining… but jobs.
In the immortal words of Bill Clinton (channeling James Carville)
Collective bargaining is fourth of four. FOURTH OF FOUR!!!! Second, when asked, people reject using a budget veto threat to restore collective bargaining. They seem to prefer to use the legislative process to rescind what was done by Walker.
This is why Falk cannot get traction, the people simply don’t like her positions. It’s not hard to understand. When a politician doesn’t listen to the voice of the people, in a democracy, they tend not to win.
I wish Kathleen Falk all the best in the election, I do believe she would make a fine governor, but I don’t expect her to win the primary. Falk supporters need to come to terms with that, sooner rather than later.
On the issue of jobs over restoring collective bargaining or even defeating Walker – very surprising to me. But very good news as well – certainly a priority I share with the majority of Whether it’s Walker, Barrett or Falk, in my eyes, the more pressure from voters to address jobs & economic issues & leave the bitterly divided political crap for another day, the better.
The economic failures of the Walker administration are regarded as “bitterly divided political crap” by the GOP… Otherwise, Walker would resign in shame, move to a farm and grow cabbage.
If the race comes down to how Dane County measures up in jobs and the economy, the race is a rout for Dane County Exec Kathleen Falk.
Judged only on jobs and the economy that you single out, where would you rather live: Milwaukee County or Dane County?
Still not sure how jobs and the economy tend to disconfirm the strength of Falk as a general election candidate.
On the contrary, does not Falk’s performance as Dane County exec speak to her candidacy? How about Dane County’s economic performance under Falk? Jobs? No brainer.
Falk’s advocacy of receiving $810 million in labor-intensive rail money?
The winning Democrat will beat Scott Walker.
But as a predictive measure, pre-primary polls are not all that reliable. And static measurements in this recall race are significantly worse. We’re in political blue skies in the coming general election recall race.
As for policy, Falk listens to all the people she represents (including those with whom she has disagreement) with the result being that Dane County enjoys a quality of life that is the envy of the nation.
Is that a data based statement or wishful thinking?
I agree that the shortened “candidate growing season” will have an impact on using past experience as a predictor of the future performance of Falk & Barrett in the primary election, but I don’t believe the sky is as blue as you might wish it to be.
I usually vote my conscience in primary elections, but frankly, this time, I’m voting for the candidate I think has a chance to erase Scott Walker from the political chalkboard. Falk is not that candidate this time around.
The statement on pre-primary polls (for state-wide office) is based on a long, detailed analysis Joel Rogers wrote to a campaign on pre-primary polls. Turgid, as is JR’s style, but the logic is compelling and the data clear.
As for political blue skies, never have we had a governor like Scott Walker and never have we had a governor recalled, hence the blue skies.
I believe the emphasis on jobs is as clear as Scott Walker is dishonest.
The idea that Wisconsin citizens buy Scott Walker’s lies about organized labor and anyone who supports labor ignores the last 14 monthes.
I’m reminded in reading this of a cartoon in the New Yorker this week.
In a medieval mob of maddened but gleeful serfs holding pikes spiked with heads, one serf turns to another and says, “This is great, but ultimately, it’s all about jobs.”
Awesome!
Glad you liked it! Meant to give the url but ran out of time, so also glad my description helped you to find it — suitable for framing. 🙂
Prof. Franklin’s polls and results are not reliably neutral. Perhaps no one’s are, but his are definitly skewed to injure or otherwise reflect a harsher political reality for progressives. Marquette, I’m sorry, but they have a HUGE conservative agenda.
I have supported Sen. Vinehout publicly online, and wish she had enough name recognition even to be thoughtfully rejected by voters. Alas, she does not. Ms Falk does, however. The Dem candidates need to run against each OTHER in this primary, not against the incumbent governor. Until someone really takes a look at Vinehout’s excellent policy statements, and Barrett’s electability, and Falk’s patronizing, parental attitude, we are only going to get more “Yeah, beat Walker” rah-rah, and not enough “beat him with Who?” dialogue, which is the crux of the current dilemma.
While I agree that polls are usually skewed one way or another, an extreme example being Rasmussen, their flaws can usually be accommodated. Do you have any data showing the degree to which the Marquette polls skew and what the error correction factor is?
Like it or not, this election, perhaps more than usual, is a fight for the middle-minded voter. And it is those voters’ opinions which dominate this poll. Even if CB is really is the Walker plank that drives us, it would be wise to emphasize the jobs factor, which is the issue of choice for the most people.
Oh, and aside from the fight-for-the-middle factor, yes, turnout will likely decide it.