Thoughts on the Democratic Primaries

The fact that Barack Obama won the Iowa Democratic Caucuses shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been paying close attention to the Democratic Presidential race. What should surprise folks is the fact that Hillary Clinton finished third behind Obama and John Edwards. Clinton’s third place finish – even though she was close on the heels of Edwards – was a tremendous blow to her campaign, especially considering how much of her campaign’s message seemed to have focused on her being the presumptive Democratic frontrunner. Her third place finish in Iowa had to take the wind out of her sails, and it will no doubt hurt her chances in New Hampshire, where she’s neck and neck with Obama heading into the New Hampshire primary.

If Clinton doesn’t win New Hampshire – or worse, she finishes third yet again – then I’d have to believe her campaign is in serious trouble. As she showed after her lackluster finish in Iowa, I expect to see a more negative Hillary Clinton if things continue to fall apart, and her increased negativity will only serve to drive more Democrats towards Obama, whose message of a new kind of politics has resonated with voters, no matter how shallow and empty it may be. Sure, Obama’s rhetoric is a lot of “fluff” and not a lot of “stuff,” but right now that’s what folks want.

So here’s my prediction for the New Hampshire primaries: Obama wins narrowly, followed by Clinton in second place and Edwards in third, and after the primary, watch for Hillary Clinton to go even more negative than she already has, giving more credibility to Obama as the “candidate of change.” At this point Hillary Clinton’s in what seems to me to be a no-win situation, and I think Obama is going to end up as the Democratic nominee, with Bill Richardson as the VP nominee.