As one might expect, there’s no shortage of shutdown commentary today. While some of this quasi-media coverage may amount to some fair background material (see a couple of these below) few have really gone beyond the much needed (but tad-bit-late-insufficient-contextualization).
The Atlantic – Countdown to Shutdown: A Primer Where Budget Wrangling Stands
What happens now?
The Senate was gone for the weekend, but will reconvene Monday and take up the House bill — but that isn’t scheduled until 2 p.m., when there are 10 hours left to shutdown. Barring an unforeseen deal or a major blink from the Democrats, the Senate will table the tax repeal and the delay and send the funding resolution back to the House — in other words, the exact same language the Senate sent the House on Friday. Unless House conservatives blink, or unless Boehner is willing to pass this so-called “clean CR” with Democratic support, the government will close.
That’s it? There’s no Plan C?
Republican House Whip Kevin McCarthy said on Sunday there might be time for a third shot at funding the government: The House could pass a resolution that includes other steps, like eliminating a subsidy for congressional staffers to buy insurance. But such a move would have to be pulled off in extremely short order, and would still presumably cross Democrats’ red line of a clean CR or nothing. Both houses could also pass a resolution that would fund the government for a few days, staving off shutdown and giving Congress more time to thrash out a deal.
And if they don’t?
The familiar parade of horribles will ensue: most federal employees sent home, national parks closed, passport applications frozen, etc. (Andrew Cohen hasmore on how the law works, and why it costs more to shut the government down and reopen it than it does to keep it open.) Then it will be a question, once more, of who blinks first to reopen the government.
What about the debt ceiling?
That’s an entirely different, and probably more dangerous, kettle of fish. Some commentators think a shutdown could hasten a clean and easy increase in the debt ceiling, but it’s not clear why, nor are there any visible signs of progress toward a debt-ceiling deal. Brace yourselves: October could be very scary well before Halloween.
Predictably, there aren’t many legal experts who have built careers around the Antideficiency Act, but I managed to corral a few. The most important messages they offer are these: 1) It’s not just present federal work that’s affected by the shutdown, it’s future work, too; and 2) shutting down the federal government is terribly wasteful and expensive because of the re-start costs involved.
That’s the point made by the acclaimed dean of Antideficiency Act scholars, University of Baltimore Law Professor Charles Tiefer (“For obscure details,” he told me, “you’ve come to the right guy.”). It’s not just that many federal operations will shut down next week, Tiefer said, it’s that “all kinds of planning and preparation for federal activity in the months and weeks to come” will become “increasingly neglected and disjointed if the showdown lasts more than a couple of days.”
The gist of this article is two-fold, historical background and an outlining the logistics of the shut down process. Some of the latter is a bit dry, but overall a good read for the “devil in the details” – in other words piecing together how subversive and near-treasonous the GOP has actually become.
Benen – How Congress Reached This Point
This is critically important to understanding what’s happening on Capitol Hill right now. If the House and Senate had gone to a conference committee back in the spring to work out their budget differences, Republicans would have been expected to compromise to reach a broader agreement — but Republicans don’t want to compromise.
So they decided to abandon the budget process they themselves had asked for so they could do precisely what they’re doing now — use extortion instead of compromise to try to get what they want.
The government may shut down in 15 hours, but it’s not an accident. Indeed, it could have been easily avoided if Congress had just done what Congresses are supposed to do when the House and Senate disagree on the budget. But Republicans insisted on this confrontation, hoping that if they just threatened enough harm, maybe Democrats would put aside the election results and meet some or all of the GOP’s demands.
There is a process already in place that’s intended to prevent disasters like these. House Republicans deliberately rejected it because they wanted a crisis, assuming it would give them “leverage” so they wouldn’t have to compromise at all.
I imagine there are quite a few Americans waking up this morning thinking, “Wait, the government is about to shut down?” What they don’t appreciate is the fact that GOP lawmakers always intended for this to happen, and set this plan in motion months ago. (emphasis mine)
Tea Party Republicans have a base of support that is whipped up into a frenzy and will not accept any form of surrender. They refused to accept that a black man could be elected president, and have committed themselves to making sure that President Obama is a failure, by any means necessary.
What they refuse to see is that if the president fails, we all fail. A government shut down – or worse, in default – would damage the economy at a time we can least afford it.
If the government shuts down because of attempted extortion by the GOP, the American people need to rise up and punish them in the 2014 election. They are putting politics ahead of country. It is time for the real patriots to stand up and vote out the undemocratic traitors who are committing treason in their effort to overturn the results of the last election.
At this juncture, what I would like to see from media and Democrats are some preventative measures. Elections are one thing, but obviously with a corrupt Tea Party base we will have a Tea Party government. The question is not voting out the Tea Party – that’s a given. The question is how to procedurally and legislatively prevent Anti-Government and Anti-Taxation Extremists from achieving their goals – to continually and incessantly defund and obstruct American government until it is no longer a functioning entity.
Obama could stop this anytime he wanted.
“Only Congress Can Raise the Debt Ceiling”
“A White House official tells First Read that President Obama is not reconsidering ways around Congress to lift the debt ceiling: “Only Congress can raise the debt limit. Period. We have said coin and 14th Amendment aren’t workable.”
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2013/09/30/only_congress_can_raise_the_debt_ceiling.html
“The Big Budget Battle the GOP Has Already Won”
“… But the important context here from Grayson is his expectation, along with everyone else’s, that the continuing resolution will enforce sequestration limits into the 2014 Fiscal Year. Nobody expected sequestration to trigger this year, until it did at the end of February. With those negotiation rooms silent and no movement on a budget deal, the big, dumb, arbitrary cuts to discretionary programs appear locked in place for the duration of President Obama’s term, and probably beyond. And that’s terrible news for the economy. …”
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114805/obama-bohener-2013-budget-battle-wont-cancel-equestration
The only way the right wing nuts can get the media to cover this after so many cry wolfs is to make it believable and the sequester did that. So, with John, I see a real happening here. “Any media coverage is positive” for the right wing nuts.
How about Marshall Law?!?
JC,
As to Dayen: Nobody expected sequestration to happen? Then Nobody wasn’t paying attention. And Polyphemus got the best of Odysseus when Nobody blinded the cyclops’s solitary oculus.
And with all due respect, but “duh” on the expectation of a CR that will enforce sequestration limits into 2014. It’s called attrition. Sequestration is already doing everything that the extortionists want it to do. Spider and fly, JC. If Grayson is correct about Democrats agreeing to sequester level spending then Democrats will acquiesce to flydom – tick off another item on the Tea Party to-do list.
Sure, mint the trillion dollar coin. If you are suggesting that will end GOP extortion then I would submit you don’t understand GOP extortion. Ultimately, the coin might be a temporary 11th or maybe 13th hour solution, but Obama can’t “just stop this at any time” with a trillion dollar coin. Green Lantern theory, again. Taming Congress or doing Congress’s job for them isn’t the executive’s role. A trillion dollar coin doesn’t solve the problem of an inoperative congress nor does minting a trillion dollar coin achieve the passage of a government budget nor will Treasury-Fed legerdemain circumvent the circumvention of the democratic process. This is a Congressional matter and it’s bigger than defunding a law that will remain mostly funded with the sabotage attempt anyway. It’s about governing.
Closing remarks from Obama’s weekly address:
“…I will not negotiate over Congress’s responsibility to pay the bills it has already racked up. I don’t know how to be more clear about this. No one gets to threaten the full faith and credit of the United States of America just to extract ideological concessions. No one gets to hurt our economy and millions of innocent people just because there are a couple of laws you don’t like. It hasn’t been done in the past and we’re not going to start doing it now. The American people have worked too hard to recover from crises to see extremists in their Congress cause another one. And every day this goes on is another day that we can’t continue the work of rebuilding the American middle class. Congress needs to pass a budget in time. Pay its bills on time. And refocus on the everyday concerns of the people who sent them there.”
Exactly. This isn’t some game where we “win”, these radicals are causing permanent lasting damage to our democracy.
Mikey,
I don’t regret the $100 I sent Obama to get re-elected in 2012. Voting rights matter and imho it was the one clear distinction between Mitt and him.
But, this is kabuki. Here’s the fund raising email I just got from OFA:
“We’re SO close – just 3,122 to go!”
John —
It’s last call.
You don’t want to miss the chance to be part of this, especially at such a critical time.
We need you — we’re just 3,122 donations away from our grassroots goal!
Chip in $5 or more before midnight tonight:
https://donate.barackobama.com/September-2013-Deadline
Stay excellent,
Organizing for Action
—————-
The other side will spend millions to maintain the status quo. We’re fighting for change — chip in $5 or more to support OFA today.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Is either side running any ads?
OFA will use these funds to help keep the Democrats corporate. They’ll back DINO’s who will be high profile on gun control and marriage equality. They’ll back DINO’s who work with the GOP to crush unions and preserve massive income inequality.
JC,
You’re aware that your OFA email doesn’t sound any different than any other? You’re aware of how this works? Perhaps you should do what I did and unsubscribe to all of it.
I think you need to study kibuki. You’ve not quite got it down pat yet. Or maybe Theatre of the Absurd or the Etruscan origins of Commedia dell’arte.
Or perhaps you’re attempting to reform from within on the wrong side of the aisle? That’s not a diss – I mean wrong for your general political bent and policy preferences. As in not aligned with your general worldview. I mean your enthusiasm is just the kind that could bring the Republican Party back from its Tea Party brink.
You know this Shutdown thingy – it might just drive the corporate cattle stampeding to the Democratic Party.
You know, with all this Obama-knocking I nearly forgot we’re locking horns again in another shutdown-hostage crisis. Which extortion crisis is this? The one initiated by Democratic brinkmanship?
Here’s something the House probably knew perfectly well:
http://blogs.rollcall.com/moneyline/house-incumbents-feel-safe-with-11-to-1-advantage-for-2014/
PJ, from Matt Yglesias,
“Failing To Raise The Debt Ceiling Doesn’t Reduce Government Spending”
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/09/28/debt_ceiling_government_spending_failing_to_pay_the_bills_doesn_t_mean_you.html
1. Door is wide open for Dems to crush the GOP on bringing back the holiday on the payroll tax. That IMMEDIATELY gives everyone a 7.5% raise on the first $107,000 they earn annually. Why aren’t they and Obama both demanding that? Capitalism runs on “sales.” It’s what the economy needs and it’s good politics.
2. Door is wide open for Dems to replace the Obamacare mandate, which everyone hates, with a “public option,” that would make Medicare-for-all an “option” to compete with health insurance oligopoly. Don’t like “government health care,” don’t “buy” Medicare coverage.
Another staggering advantage of the public option is the boost to small businesses who live in fear that a couple of catastrophic illnesses could wipe them out. Enough with forcing small business to make managing their health care costs a “marginal cost of production.”
“Chris Abele considers dropping health coverage in favor of exchanges”
http://www.jsonline.com/news/milwaukee/chris-abele-proposes-shifting-county-health-coverage-to-obamacare-b99109906z1-225842341.html
Abele’s running the County like a small business, he’s trying to loading his risk onto someone else.
3. Door is wide open for Dems to crush the GOP by saying “we want to replace welfare and most forms of unemployment insurance with a federal job guarantee.
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2013/07/a-plan-for-all-the-detroits-out-there.html
But no, Dems will go on letting GOP crucify them as the party of “pity-charity,” the last resort for those who “can’t make it on their own.”
4. Door is wide open for Obama to change the schedule on pot, making it legal nation-wide. I would never encourage anyone, who did not already have a serious illness, to use it, but the prohibition on alcohol did not work either.
Dems are facilitating the GOP’s “social destruction.” Young people and low information voters don’t see any difference between Dems and GOP, between conservatives and liberals.
5. Why aren’t Dems screaming about these?
@nomiprins
Student Loan Debt $1.2 trillion, Fed’s purchase of MBS securities $1.34 trillion.
@nomiprins 26 Sep
Ten years of food stamps cuts at $40 billion = less than two weeks of Fed’s $85 billion monthly mortgage-backed securities buying program.
6. Finally OFA started sending me fund raising emails about Obamacare. Up until this week, they were too busy stealing from other liberal groups, gun control, choice, climate change, who were actually trying to get something done on these issues.
7. Where’s the crescendo of Dem voices vowing no cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid? That’s what’s coming. In return for some meaningless, temporary tax cuts on the 1%, Obama wants that pelt on his wall, the Democratic President who cut “entitlements.” That’ll pave the way for donations from the 1% for the biggest Presidential library ever.
JC,
And where is the Democratic Party extortion plan?
PJ,
I’m sorry for not making that more clear. I don’t see any qualitative difference between the anti-capitalism in either party.
Here’s the road ahead for all the “balanced FEDERAL budgets”:
“Greek youth unemployment hits record 65%
Overall rate at 27% but two thirds of youths can’t find a job, stats show”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/greek-youth-unemployment-hits-record-65-1.1337224
Unemployment and income inequality = social destruction
There’s no excuse for either in the 21st century. As civil institutions break down, people migrate to “tribes.”
“White supremacist” groups, like those Wade Michael Page interacted with gain traction.
That’s what you see in Greece with the rise of “Golden Dawn.”
The Greek government just banned neo-Nazis.
“Sunday 29 September 2013
False Dawn: Arrests of neo-Nazis in Greece will achieve little if the deeper malaise is not addressed
Closing down Golden Dawn will not prove a miracle cure for Greece”
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/false-dawn-arrests-of-neonazis-in-greece-will-achieve-little-if-the-deeper-malaise-is-not-addressed-8847703.html
You’re a smart guy. If you’re not screaming at Democrats about the payroll tax, unemployment, and income inequality, while the 1% buy up what they don’t already own, I’d say the Democratic party has real serious problems.
No qualitative difference between the anti-capitalism in either party? You did say anti-capitalism?
Balanced federal budget? You did say balanced federal budget?
Payroll tax? You did say payroll tax?
Fascists and white supremacists in Greece? You did say fascists and white supremacists in Greece?
What about the Democratic Party’s scheme to circumvent the legislative process? Tell me more about that plan. And from whence it is derived.
PJ, have you thought about writing for the JS’ editorial page.
You seem to have a lot in common.
“Obamacare: A major step toward fairness”
http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/obamacare-a-major-step-toward-fairness-b99108436z1-225816261.html
Remember, these same folks endorsed Walker over that lib, Tom Barrett.
JC,
Me, write for Der Angriff? Uh, no. If you think I have a lot in common with JS then I’d have to surmise your evaluative capacity has reached below zero. I’ve never favored the ACA (though providing that it’s law, I don’t support any effort to prevent its implementation). I favor socialized medicine in the form of nationalized health care. You may recall from the recall, my opinion of Barrett was that he was too DLC/DNC in his approach to governance -i.e. he was too indistinguishable from Walker in terms of economic agendas.
I’d point out you have yet to reply to my queries regarding the Democratic Party. Can you identify and describe the long term Democratic strategy that parallels Tea Party political warfare – of which- permanent gridlock and shutdown-slowdown is an ongoing tactic? Of which extortion and thwarting of the democratic process itself are primary motivators for all levels of anti-democratic anti-governance? Can you pinpoint Democratic culpability for this current shutdown?
Or are you going to stick with Emo-inanity – this shutdown is Obama’s doing? Obamacare caused this shutdown? Obama hasn’t filled your policy wish list so Obama caused this shutdown?
Today Economics professor @StephanieKelton tweeted a 1988 youtube of Bon Jovi’s “Bad Medicine.”