the original from the BAND:
and my favorite from Gene Clark (of the Byrds) [altho this video is rather lame]:
This is from Jake’s Economic TA Funhouse blog.
Guv’s race still even, as “likely voters” =/= ALL voters
Yes, the numbers that were part of the Marquette Law School poll that came out today in Wisconsin for the governor’s race was shocking, and there is a reason why. Because it doesn’t reflect reality. Marquette’s definition of a “likely voter” does not capture all of the voters that will go to the polls, which goes a long way toward explaining how a 46-45 Scott Walker lead in a poll of registered voters can turn into a 50-43 lead among “likely voters.”
Why is there such an (absurd) disparity? Because the Marquette Poll thinks no one who says they aren’t 100% certain to vote isn’t a “likely voter.” The amount of people who responded that they were “Very Likely” to vote are 8.9% of the registered voters, and those that said they were “50-50” about voting are 4.9% of the voters. It is reasonable to assume a majority of this 13.8% will end up voting in the November elections, especially given the amount of attention that these races are being given. But the media lazily is running with the Marquette “ certain likely voter” screen as a snapshot of what things look like, and it’s simply not true.
Those “very likely” and “50-50” voters lean heavily toward Mary Burke. You’ve already gotten a hint at this with the difference in Party ID from the LV to RV poll shifting 5.5 points toward the Dems. But look at where the “will probably vote” types end up.
READ MORE HERE: http://jakehasablog.blogspot.com/2014/10/guvs-race-still-even-as-likely-voters.html#comment-form
This should be obvious, but it’s good to have it verified by academics. New research shows that reluctant voters can be mobilized through repeated personal contact, i.e. door knocking or live phone calls. With the GAB predicting turnout of roughly 57% the Burke/Walker race is up for grabs. Time to pour it on for Burke.
So pay no attention to the polls. Shed what jitters you may have and head to the nearest campaign office to sign up for a shift of phone calls. You’ll get used to it quickly. It’s not a big deal. You may even come to kind of like it.
Go now. Time’s a wastin’.
Eau Claire’s Justin Vernon nails a heartbreaker.
The new Marquette poll is out, and while it’s certainly not as encouraging as the previous poll, it’s certainly not all doom and gloom.
Republican Gov. Scott Walker leads Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50% to 43% among likely voters in the latest survey by the Marquette University Law School.
That represents a change from other Wisconsin surveys in recent weeks — including a Marquette poll two weeks ago — that showed the race essentially tied.
The Marquette results released Wednesday underscore just how much turnout matters to the outcome of the contest for governor. Walker’s gains were not among the broader population of registered voters, but among those who said they were certain to vote on Nov. 4. That’s the group defined as “likely voters” in Marquette’s polling.
The race is much tighter and has changed little among all registered voters — with Walker leading Burke 46% to 45%.
As pollster Charles Franklin noted, the swings in his polling could likely be attributed to shifts in motivation/enthusiasm among voters on both sides of the political spectrum. It’s also notable that with less than a week left before election day, the latest Marquette poll has 7% of the electorate still undecided on which candidate they’ll vote for.
Ultimately, what this latest Marquette poll shows is that this election is going to be won by turnout. If Democrats can get their voters to the polls – which is always a challenge in non-presidential year elections – then Scott Walker will lose this election.
Via frequent Blogging Blue commenter Duane Dubey comes this excellent editorial.
We “Sand” With Scott Walker
No, my headline is not misspelled. But, yes, as long as Walker is governor with his relaxed environmental standards and favoritism of the corporate over the human, the negative effects of the sand mines in many Jackson and Trempealeau county communities will continue unabated. Two recent studies previously noted here cite the risk to affected communities from various forms of water and air pollution, both short and long term, due to sand mining.
Allow me to add several other negative effects one aesthetic, one recreational, and one to peace of mind. Gone forever will be the sight of many of the rolling hills of Coulee Country thousands of years old. And the fall beauty of woods and meadows will be blighted by stark and ugly mining structures and huge sand piles in the midst of peaceful rural farm and wilderness scenes. How sad! In many small communities, it is as if the noise of a highway I-90 /I-94 is present 24/7 with truck traffic. Also as an outdoorsman, I mourn the loss of thousands of acres of habitat for creatures of the wild. Where will the whitetail, the raccoon, the rabbit, other four-legged critters, as well as the winged creatures of field and forest go?
There is a solution, at least partially; each of us has the power by uniting to correct or prevent such untoward happenings visited upon man and nature by our representatives. The solution is called an “election”.
Duane Dubey – Alma Center
Banner Journal, October 22, 2014, “Opinions” page 3
According to a new study by University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor Marc Levine, since 2010 the number of low-wage occupations in Wisconsin increased while the number of middle-wage occupations actually shrunk.
Low-wage-occupation jobs bounced back in the recovery, rising by about 130,000 from 2010 to 2013. During that same period, middle-wage occupations lost 16,000 jobs.
“Since 2010, the recovery has been extraordinarily heavily weighted — all of the net growth in Wisconsin has been in the low-wage category,” Levine said.
Some of that growth is from newly created low-wage jobs. But the lion’s share has come from middle-wage occupations dropping into the lowest tier as their pay fell in inflation-adjusted terms.
I’d venture a guess that among those formerly middle-wage occupations that have fallen into being low-wage jobs are some public employees, as I’ve noted previously.
To see that the number of low-wage occupations grew while the number of middle-wage (i.e. family-sustaining) occupations shrunk tells a startling story about the kinds of jobs Gov. Scott Walker has created here in Wisconsin since he declared the state “Open for business.”
This is an excellent endorsement of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mary Burke.
Walker is a great example of what happens when someone with no real-world management or business experience is placed in a position of overseeing a multi-billion-dollar bureaucracy. For decades, Republicans themselves have argued that career politicians are unqualified to serve in such positions.
As a paper committed to progress and reform, we agree whole-heartedly with Republicans on this issue. That’s one of the many reasons we endorse Democrat Mary Burke with great confidence and enthusiasm.
A vote for Burke is far more than a vote against Walker. She is one of the strongest, most promising candidates running anywhere in the nation this year. Even Walker apologists have acknowledged how unique and qualified Burke is to lead the state.
In addition to holding a Harvard MBA, she’s a successful businesswoman with deep international experience. She established — from the ground up — European operations for Trek Bicycle Corp. Those operations have grown from $3 million to $50 million in revenue.
Burke understands how business operates. She knows how to balance a real-world budget and she understands the challenges facing the entrepreneurs and start-up companies that are the only hope for Wisconsin’s future.
While college-dropout Walker has repeatedly sold out the interests of Wisconsinites to cultivate politically useful relationships with uber wealthy donors, Burke is financially independent. While he has higher political aspirations, Burke simply wants to be governor because she believes — correctly, in our opinion — that she has the skills and commitment to turn the state’s lagging economy around while restoring its progressive tradition of governing in a way that serves everyone, not just the rich and politically connected.
Burke’s stance on social issues such as women’s reproductive freedom, marriage equality, pay equity and voting rights are in line with those of the forward-thinking people Wisconsin needs to retain and attract to halt the state’s brain drain.
While Walker has acknowledged in public that his political game is based on a strategy of divide and conquer, Burke is eager to bring people together to solve the complex problems that involve us all, to find common ground and build consensus. That’s how private sector executives solve problems, and that’s how Burke has solved problems all her life, whether in the corporate boardroom or in her many leadership roles on boards of nonprofits. In a state that under Walker has become perhaps the most divided in the nation, Burke offers the sort of unifying leadership we need.
Burke’s economic knowledge is reflected in her job-growth strategy of identifying business and educational clusters and utilizing their strengths and resources to create new areas of industry, such as fresh-water and clean energy technology or biomedical and digital products and services. Her plans, culled from the most inventive and promising business development strategies being utilized today, not only look great on paper but also have actually worked incredibly well in places such as California’s Silicon Valley.
Burke has shown as much tireless commitment to her community as Walker has to his political career. She serves on the Madison School Board and has been instrumental in turning the Boys and Girls Club of Dane County into a model for lifting up troubled youth. She co-founded a program that mentors underprivileged kids at risk of becoming drop-outs and helps them develop the life skills to get into college. The program has a 90-percent success rate.
A third-generation Wisconsinite who could live in a mansion but chooses instead to live in a modest home where her grandfather once delivered mail, Burke’s personal narrative is rooted in true American values, especially the value of hard work. She’s smart, humble and eager to help others. She wants the actual job of governor, not just the title.
Over at Monologues of Dissent, Heather posted an excellent piece highlighting the stark differences between Gov. Scott Walker and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mary Burke.
I have worked with or known Mary Burke for 28 years. I am also a 25 year resident of Sun Prairie. Friends and family often ask me questions about Mary. They wonder if I think she would make a good Governor.
They wonder why she is running. They simply want to better understand exactly who she is.
In early 2011, I read a brief article that said Mary Burke donated $450,000 to build apartment homes for struggling families. I happened to see Mary a short time later and asked her about this. She said that someone told her about this project to build housing for families that needed help getting back on their feet. She heard that the funding ran dry and that the project was being cut.
She said her current home was much bigger than she needed and decided to downsize her house and give the excess equity to this organization.
I recall her saying, “What’s better, me with a house much bigger than I need, or eight families with homes and an opportunity to get ahead?” She said this like it was a decision anyone would make.
There are many other similar stories that I could share. I think this story says a lot about how Mary Burke lives her life.
Mary has a history of identifying a problem that she is passionate about and then doing something about it. She simply has never sat back and said, oh here is a problem, I really hope someone does something about it.
So when people ask me if I think she will make a good Governor, I say no…I think she will be an exceptional Governor. – Mike Hietpas, Town of Bristol
And therein lies the difference between Mary Burke and Scott Walker: while Burke sold her house to help struggling families, Scott Walker has worked diligently during his term in office to create more struggling families.
I’ll let Eric Pizer do the talking.