Historic trends point to Republican House gains in the 2010 midterm election, but how big will those gains be? Over the last five decades, the party out of power has picked up seats in 10 of the 12 midterm elections, and in 1994 Republicans took control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 1954 thanks to a 54-seat swing from Democrats to Republicans. As Politico is reporting, 2010 could be a very bad year for House Democrats, if election pundits like Charlie Cook and Nate Silver are to be believed. Here’s a quote from Charlie Cook on just how bad things could be for Democrats in 2010:
“Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,”
Silver, who has gained a large following due to the accuracy of his stat-driven election projections, predicted at the Netroots Nation convention in August that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 House seats next year. Silver went on to say the Republican Party has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House in 2010.
While I respect Nate Silver and his acumen when it comes to predicting election results, I just don’t see Republicans having a chance at winning back the House. There’s no doubt in my mind Republicans will likely gain back some seats they lost in 2006 and 2008, but as things stand right now, I’d put the number of seats Republicans gain at between 15 and 20. However, all bets are off if the economy starts to gain momentum heading into 2010, because Democrats will obviously reap the benefits of an improved economic climate in the nation.
Well, I said previously that Dems like Obey should not plan on easy wins. The election in 2010 and 2012 may be a rejection of career politicians of both red and blue hues.
What happens when both red and blue citizens finally see that BOTH parties have mucked this up in different ways?
We might learn that soon enough.
I just don’t see incumbents like Dave Obey and Gwen Moore really being that vulnerable, even if 2010 will be a favorable year for Republicans. Rep. Obey will still win by at least 8 points, while Rep. Moore should win by double digits.