Some election day predictions

If you’re reading this blog, I don’t need to tell you the importance of tomorrow. It’s election day, and with that in mind here’s my predictions on a few races of import.

Presidential Race
In the presidential race, I’ll predict President Barack Obama wins reelection with 303 electoral votes to Republican Mitt Romney’s 235 electoral votes. Here’s my map:

Map courtesy

Wisconsin U.S. Senate Race
I think this is going to be a very close race, but I predict Democrat Tammy Baldwin will defeat Republican Tommy Thompson 50.4% to 49.0%, with Libertarian Party candidate Joe Kexel picking up .6% of the vote.

4th Congressional District
In contrast to Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, the race between Democratic incumbent Rep. Gwen Moore, Republican Dan Sebring, and independent candidate Robert Raymond won’t be at all close. I think we’ll see a repeat of 2010’s result, with Gwen Moore winning 69% of the vote to Sebring’s 30%, with Raymond picking up the remaining 1%.

Other Races
I’ll also go ahead and predict Democrats will maintain control of the United States Senate but will continue to be the majority in the House of Representatives, albeit by a smaller number of seats.

And here in Wisconsin, Democrats will lose control of the State Senate (17-16 Republican majority) and will continue to be the minority party in the Assembly.


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