While the race to be the Republican nominee in the 6th Congressional district is far from over, Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel thinks that Grothman as the Republican nominee could increase chances Democrats could gain control of the seat.
If his tiny victory margin in Tuesday’s GOP primary holds up, state Sen. Glenn Grothman will be the instant favorite this fall to replace 35-year congressman Tom Petri of Fond du Lac.
But he’ll be a favorite with an asterisk.
Grothman’s blunt persona and outspoken conservatism on hot-button social issues are wild cards in what otherwise should be an easy seat for Republicans to hold.
In style and substance, Grothman is a huge departure from the mild-mannered Republican that voters in Wisconsin’s 6th District have been sending to Congress since Jimmy Carter was in the White House. Petri largely avoided confrontation and controversy. For Grothman, being “politically incorrect” is a badge of honor.
“Democrats have very few opportunities across the country to take Republican seats,” says David Wasserman, who analyzes U.S. House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “But in this case the best thing they have going for them is an easily demonize-able Republican opponent. Why they don’t take advantage of that is a mystery to me.”
Is Grothman “demonize-able” enough to put a House seat in play that Republicans have held for the past 46 years?
While Glenn Grothman may increase the chances Democrats could gain control of the seat in the 6th Congressional district, I’m not holding my breath for a Dmeocratic win in the 6th Congressional district. Mark Harris is a great Democratic candidate, but in a district that favors Republicans by 24%, it would take a miracle for Democrats to wrest control of the seat from Republicans.
8 thoughts on “Could Glenn Grothman give Democrats a chance in the 6th CD?”
I think Harris has a great chance of winning. The GOP advantage is more like 12 points (56-44) in a neutral year, not 24. In fact, Ibama won this district in 2008 and it was something like 51-47 Romney in 2012.
Combine that with Harris being a great, moderate candidate that would solve problems instead of being a Grothmann-like embarrassment, and I’ll be disappointed if the Dems DON ‘T win. And the DPW better run hard in this district, not just for Harris, but for Mary Burke.
The PVI is R +13 district. Obama lost it in 2008.
You’re confusing this district with Sensenbrenner’s. In fact, take out Ozaukee County, and it’s a 50-50 seat in 2012. Almost half of the non-262 counties in WI-6 voted Obama in 2012.
You are right, when I scrolled across I switched columns. I thought that the number I saw seemed a bit high, but a lot of these districts changed so dramatically that it could have been right. It is a PVI R +5, tough but could be in play.
“Why they don’t take advantage of that is a mystery to me.”
Ever met him? He comes across as a small “c” conservative following his own counsel more than Alec’s. And while his comments taken out of context and printed in the paper would give one pause, delivered in context, his off-the-cuff remarks can be pretty funny – although, I’d agree that this is what could blow his campaign up. I wouldn’t jump to hasty conclusions. Harris is terrific and would do a fine job in Congress but Republican voters in this district meeting Grothman at coffee shops, county fairs and pancake breakfasts, may not see him as you do.
Jane Hamsher called it the “incumbency protection rackets.”
It’s much safer for incumbents if their party doesn’t have too much control. They can blame the other side and trot out the always reliable, “we didn’t have the votes.”
The Dems would have a better chance if they actually campaigned. I suspect 9 out of 10 voters here have not taken the time to do the research on who the candidate is as there is little information available and no signs or any indication that anybody is running. Granted one would think the Foolocracy award winner should be easy to beat but a little effort is in order.
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