Ryan Not Following District’s Wish on Health Care & Public Option

Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight has a fascinating analysis of support for the public option in each congressional district.  Here’s an extract of the key points to his analysis

1. “Six polls reveal a strong relationship between the public option and support for Barack Obama last November.”
2. “There also appears to be a secondary relationship between support for the public option and the poverty rate.”
3. “This analysis finds that support for the public opti0n nationwide is about 55 percent, against 36 percent opposed.”
4. “The public option is estimated to have plurality support of 291 of the 435 Congressional Districts nationwide, or almost exactly two-thirds.” (not sure about the almost exactly, but I respect Nate Silver’s analysis)

If I were Paul Ryan, I’d be concerned by the results in his district, where using Nate Silver’s logistic regression analysis, the public option is supported by 47% vs. 42% opposed.

Here are the results for all Wisconsin Districts.