…and I’d like to hear your predictions on who wins in the various primary races across the state.
Who will win in the Democratic primary in the 2nd Congressional district?
What about the Republican U.S. Senate primary?
Post your thoughts/predictions below.
Pocan appears to be strongly favored in the WI-2 Democratic primary.
The WI-Sen GOP primary appears to be a tossup between Thompson and Hovde.
I’m totally bumfuzzeled on Wisconsin.
I’m going to say Pocan wins by at least 15 points over Roys.
As for the GOP primary, I think it’s Thompson’s to lose, but he’ll have a hard time beating Tammy Baldwin in the fall.
I think Pocan wins WI-2 easily.
I Thompson wins the GOP Senate nomination.
I think Petri fends off Lauren Stephans for 6th CD nomination
A few races in my area I for state positions:
55th AD-Dean Kaufert fends off Tea Party challenger Jay Schroeder.
53rd AD-Michael Schraa gets the GOP nod & Koby Schellenger takes the Democratic primary.
56rd AD-Richard Schoenbaum over Diana Lawrence
I tend to think the Milwaukee right wing radio community is going to line up behind Hovde and push him over the top. Mainly because Tommy is too old to be a realistic option beyond one term. I also think either of them will beat Baldwin by 3 or 4 points come November. I don’t think she is going to play very well outside of Dane County, at least not well enough to win. Plus, I think a lot of the money that would have been used in the Baldwin campaign was used in the recall election and she is going to be at a disadvantage there. I guess the big x factor is how much of a coattails bump she is going to get from Obama, who I believe will carry Wisconsin by 8 or 9 points.
Don Pridemore & Nick Oliver tie at 50-50 in Assembly District 22. They are then placed in a cage match to determine the winner.
That would certainly be a new spin on deciding a deadlocked election.
Some of the races that I’m keeping up on here in the Fondy Area (aside from Pocan/Roys, which Mark win’s in a landslide):
6th CD: Petri will win his primary hands down. Token Challenger
53rd Assembly: Interesting race on both sides! Current Treasury Secretary Kurt Schuller is running in the Republican primary along with Michael Schraa, and Frank Frassetto. There are a LOT of Schraa signs that have popped up in the area around FDL, which is interesting considering that Schuller would technically be the “hometown” person. Schuller really hasn’t had any signage up that I can see, but that’s not to say it doesn’t exist. Frassetto signs were noted along 21 west of Oshkosh last weekend when I was traveling, so that’s interesting to know.
For the Dem’s it’s also a 3 way primary between Koby Schellenger, Joanne Staudacher, & Ryan Flejter. Who wins this race is anyone’s bet. Ryan seems to have a little bit of “party backing” in his campaign, but Koby is running a great campaign himself. Then there is Joanne who hasn’t had a lot of money and time but is the crown jewel of door to door campaigners.
So, who knows what this district will do come August or in November. The 53rd actually turned ever so slightly more blue in the redistricting maps, so this one really could be anyone’s take.
As always, for my take on the Senate Primary, go to my site for the ads, the candidates, their crazy faces, etc. I will say this though, I made my claim in early June & have stood by it since, Tommy’s not winning.
Isn’t the Democratic Party supposed to stay out of contested primaries? What type of backing is the party giving Ryan?
There’s no “official” backing of any kind. It’s just a feeling one gets when one talks with the “party regulars” about who they support themselves. It’s one of those “hunch” things I suppose.
Gotcha. Sure would be nice if I had a chance to meet him (N FDL). Never seen him at all. Not at Sen. King’s events, OFA events, parades or anything else. I’ve seen Joanne a few times and Koby has been to nearly every function and knocked on my door so I was just curious. Appreciate the insight.
If you go to the FDL Dem’s Facebook page there have been some things posted by members I know, but that’s really it.
Yes, it will be really interesting to see what happens with this primary.
Also, great to see other’s from the area on here 🙂 Check out http://wisoapbox.blogspot.com
There were a few things posted on the FDL Dem’s FB page I know, but yeah… I dont’ know much about him. I think he may have an interview posted on YouTube by the Oshkosh Public Access TV.
Great to see a fellow Foot of the Laker on here 🙂 Don’t be afraid to check of the “Wisconsin Soap Box” where I occasionally touch on local things trying to bring them out to those in the Madison/Milwaukee markets
Thanks! I took a look at Wisconsin Soap Box. I like it.
I didn’t find anything on Ryan on YouTube or anywhere else. Found a ton about Koby Schellenger. He’s definitely got a multimedia presence on the web. Anyway, FDL Dems are a joke anyway, most dysfunctional organization that I’ve ever been a member of. Too many egos, too little actual work done. Nonetheless, I appreciate the site and if you ever see or hear anything from Ryan I’d be happy to hear. At this point, I’ll take Mr. Schellenger who I’ve actually met and seems to be running a solid, professional style campaign.
I like the new FDL Dem’s website, but I do feel similar to you with respect to the party.
That being said, there is a “Drinking Liberally” that has been started in FDL. Not sure how “into” that you might be, but we meet the 2nd Tuesday of the month at the “Oar House” at 6pm.
Last time was my 1st time and it’s a small group as of now. But.. constantly getting bigger
Tuesdays my daughter has her gymnastics practice but I will look into making that work. Any liberal social group would be great. Thanks.
Right now I’d say…
Pocan over Roys by at least 25% (I’ll say Silverman and Hall get around 10% combined). It’s sad to see Kelda stall her promising career with this idiotically negative campaign. It’s just pissing all of us off that know Mark, and I can’t believe it’ll score Kelda more votes. Very short-term thinking by Roys.
For GOP Senator- I think the average GOP primary voter is such a brain-dead toolbox that they’ll follow the advice of the ads and vote for Hedge Fund Hovde in a close race over Tommy. Nuemann 3rd and Fitzgerald not registering 5%. I’d better see Tammy ads running hard in the next few weeks as well, lest Hovde get a RoJo-style bounce in the media.
One to watch in the Madison-area legislative races- Sondy Pope-Roberts vs. Joe Wineke in a newly-redistricted seat. I don’t live in the area, but I’d think Wineke’s got the name recognition and union standing to pull it off.
Jake, I think the problems with Kelda’s campaign can be directly traced to the fact that her campaign is being run by someone who’s not from the district. Her campaign strikes me as more of an “inside the Beltway” campaign, and her negative attack ads bear that out.
Hey Jake, so if a vote for Hovde is just brain-dead, who in your mind is the smart vote in the GOP primary? Wondering if you could provide some analysis without the insults.
For the 53rd, I do see a TON of Schraa sign, but in all reality signs dont mean votes. Schraa committed to the race months before Frassetto, which explains the larger number of Schraa signs. I have attended many public events in the 53rd and the majortiy of people who I have talked to who have Schraa signs up say that they only have them up because Schraa was the only republican canidate for awhile. I belive Frank will pull through because of his experience in government.