So Rasmussen’s out with a new poll, and not shockingly, it’s paints a rosy picture of things for Republicans here in Wisconsin. Predictably, Republicans are touting the poll as proof that Republican candidates have momentum in the 2010 election. However, as Xoff points out over at Uppity Wisconsin, there’s more to Rasmussen’s poll than meets the eye:
Their latest poll says Ron Johnson, a guy who’s never been in politics or in the public eye, has 67% name recognition after campaigning for one week, without every buying any television time. There must be a lot more people reading newspapers than we think. Johnson is best-known for being caught on video rippping down one of his opponent’s signs at the state convention.
Just like Xoff, I have a hard time believing 67% of the folks Rasmussen polled knew who Ron Johnson was , especially considering Johnson’s been in the race only ten days. Johnson hasn’t run a single ad on TV or the radio, and he hasn’t even articulated what he stands for, besides “freedom.”
The fact is, conservatives can tout the results of whatever Rasmussen polls they want, but it’s pretty clear Rasmussen isn’t exactly unbiased.
EDIT: Nate Silver of 538.com thoroughly eviscerates the Rasmussen poll:
Have you ever heard of Ron Johnson? I hadn’t until about three days ago. And it seems unlikely that many voters in the Badger State would have heard about him either. Johnson didn’t announce his candidacy until two weeks ago. He’s never held political office before. He runs a small business called Pacur Inc that has only 73 employees. He doesn’t have a campaign website up. He doesn’t have a Wikipedia page. Prior to this morning, he’d been mentioned in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the state’s largest paper, just three times over the past month.
And yet, according to Rasmussen, 68 percent of Wisconsin’s “likely voters” have already formulated an opinion about Ron Johnson! And 94 percent of the state’s voters know how they’d vote if he were to run against Russ Feingold!
Silver goes on to note that common sense would dictate the number of Wisconsinites (even “likely voters”) who know who Ron Johnson is right now is closer to 6.8 percent than 68.
I think the 67% is accurate, and the only reason why I say that is because “Ron Johnson” just seems like such a common name. If somone with a different, less common name, was in Ron Johnson’s same exact position and situation, I think that person would poll a lot lower. So, I don’t think it has much to do with Rasmussen fixing the poll…. or using questionable methodology (at least in this particular question.) Justsayin.
I’ve updated my entry to reflect Nate Silver’s analysis of the Rasmussen poll. It’s worth a read.
A couple of points – though I’m surprised and don’t think the 67% number is quite accurate, I’m feeling a bit argumentative…
First just an FYI, shocking as this might be, Wisconsin actually includes areas besides Milwaukee and Madison. Believe it or not, mention of a person in the MJS is not the be-all, end-all indicator of popularity in the state, despite what Silver might think. Many of us in the “here be dragons” area of their maps actually even manage to drive our tractors to the town hall to vote. 🙂
Second, while Johnson has only been officially in the running for a pretty short time, there have been articles about his interest in running and actually a bit of buzz since Tommy bowed out in mid-April.
Third, the Alan Smithee thing is…probably pretty accurate. (Of course that guy has directed a ton of movies so one would expect some name recognition 🙂 That said, though I understand why you guys would spin it as a negative of Johnson, the fact of the matter is it is much more an indictment of Feingold. Just another indicator that there really is a substantial “anyone but Russ” sentiment.