While Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ron Johnson and the Wisconsin GOP want to make a big deal of a recent Rasmussen poll that showed Johnson with a 47-46 lead over incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold, a recent University of Wisconsin Badger Poll paints a much different picture of the U.S. Senate race:
Poll results released Thursday show Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold has 27 percent support and Republican challenger Ron Johnson has 21 percent in a Senate race in which more than half of those asked say they’re still undecided.
About another 1 percent said they would vote for a candidate other than Feingold or Johnson. The margin of error in the University of Wisconsin Badger Poll was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The 51 percent of undecided voters could easily swing the race in either direction. However, with the general election more than three months away, few are even paying attention.
No doubt more voters will start paying attention in the months leading up to the election, especially once the primaries are finished, but no matter which poll you put more stock in, ultimately polls don’t decide elections – voters do. While Sen. Feingold may not be cruising to an easy reelection this year, I’m more inclined to believe the UW Badger Poll than I am to believe the Rasmussen poll, especially given Rasmussen’s clear bias towards Republicans.
Sorry I am not commenting on Rasmussen poll but I just wanted to get your collective thoughts on an issue. Do you remember Obama campaigning on no new taxes on any family who would make less than 250K. Well… now that several states are taking the issue to court calling in unconstitutional, the Obama administration is calling the the healthcare bill a tax.
The UW Poll MIGHT turn out to be correct. But if you look at the assorted polls over at RealClearPolitcs.com You will see that the UW poll is a smaller sample and is also an outlier. The past several election cycles have shown Rasmussen to be the most accurate overall polling company in the country. The results they release are based on a 3 day “rolling” survey. and always focus on Likely Voters. which always reflects Republicans support with greater accuracy. The PPP poll is a Dem leaning polling company. RCP.com always notes surveys done by Partisan companies and notes it accordingly. RCP doesn’t perceive Rasmussen to be “partisan”