Winning Our Way To A Recession


The Dow has dropped more than 600 points, or about 2.5%. Investors have been whipsawed in recent days from mixed signals emerging from the Trump administration about tariffs and the escalating trade war with China.

The jitters were exacerbated amid worrisome economic data from two big countries was announced. Germany posted negative growth in the latest quarter, and China’s industrial output fell to a 17-year low.

An even bigger worry: The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell below 2-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007. In other words, you would get a higher interest rate for government debt that matures in two years than in 10 years.

Such an inversion in yields has a strong track record of predicting a recession, especially the longer it continues. Each of the last seven recessions, dating back to 1969, were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.

This isn’t good news…the only silver lining here is if it happens before the 2020 election…it might help us kick Trump’s butt…cause he has no ability to handle a recession…none. And if happens afterwards and he is re-elected in the meantime…we’ll be looking square in the face of another depression.


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