Posted in Election 2014, Open Thread

It’s a pre-election open thread

   November 1, 2014

Here’s your chance to share what’s on your mind.

Like most of you all, I’m looking forward to Tuesday’s election, but I’d like to hear what you think. Who do you think will emerge victorious on election day?

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49 thoughts on “It’s a pre-election open thread”

  1. I think the question on everyone’s mind is, will Mary Jo Walter’s write-in campaign take votes away from Brett Hulsey’s write-in campaign. Can’t wait to see how this one plays out.

  2. The best indicator of who will win the governor’s race is Walker’s whining.

    Crying that he needs more money from Christie suggests to me that he has some private data or polling that is unfavorable to his reelection. And why not? Any conscionable person who has kept up to date with Walker’s record acts of inhumanity and deliberate divisiveness not to mention monumental failures such as WEDC couldn’t possibly justify returning him to office.

    And thus, many Rip Van Winkles will awaken from their deep sleep of 2010 along with those during the recall who said, “let him have a whole term.”

    It’s Mary Burke easily.

    At the Federal level, I suspect, because of gerrymandering, there will be no surprises. The exception will be in weak Republican areas if there is a high turnout of Dems.

  3. I’m with Duane. Walker is probably the weak link. He has been under attack for four years now, and those who seek his overthrow don’t have to lie about anything. Just the look of him bespeaks fear, except when he is doing a scripted, polished self promo. I also have high hopes for Westlund. She has run a stellar campaign against lumberjack Duffy, whose baseless ego is evident in his demeanor and speaking style.

  6. As much as conservatives are focusing and hoping for low turn out in Milwaukee and Madison, I think they have to focus to Western Wisconsin (aka West of Wausau and Madison) which has had the biggest shift to democrats if you look at the polls. (You see it in the PPP and the Marquette details.)

    I noticed there are more commercials for Robert Burke now online when I’m watching various videos on my day off. From what I hear this is not done by the Libertarian candidate but instead the GOP to try take away votes from Mary Burke by going on the marijuana issue. I heard this was the case in other states as well throughout the country.

    I already voted with my family and friends but I heard some rumors that this is the big money interests trying to split the votes, as Robert Burke does not have the money for these commercials. (Nor do many other libertarians across the country.)

    1. Interestingly I discovered the videos for Robert Burke (Which is a literally copy and paste video with a different name and person than another I seen from North Carolina.) being put up after Mary Burke threw the October Surprise of the accusations of her being fired back with the commercial I showed earlier.

      That being said, I think it’s anyone game. Absentee ballots are higher than 2012 Recall numbers and higher than 2010. Turn Out on both sides will likely be huge too. I just think the important things to watch are Western Wisconsin, Madison, and Milwaukee. I’m not sure how Brown County is going to go where I live, but I predict it will go for the conservative. The split is going to be something along the lines of the Supreme Court race result in my opinion, if not even more dramatic.

      1. Thank you for finding this!

        My friend from North Carolina said the same thing is happening there from the same “American Future Fund” and the same thing is happening in Florida. Basically all the races where it looks like the conservatives are in trouble.

  7. I’m thinking it will be like 51-48 Walker with the rest going to the minor candidates. I just don’t see anyone getting too excited about Mary Burke and Scott Walker’s people are very determined to keep him in office. Then again, like I’ve been hearing for the past month, it is all about turnout. Maybe there is enough anti-Walker sentiment out there to vote him out. I’m just thinking that if the national picture is what the polls are indicating it is, you’re going to be seeing a lot of red on election night. It’s hard to imagine that not translating to Wisconsin (assuming of course that the polls are accurate).

  8. I’d agree with T. Look for the turnout totals in Madison and Milwaukee, and look at the Hwy.29 corridor, and then on down through Western Wisconsin. If there’s a shift to Dem, I bet it’s there (because of fracking, defunding of public schools). This seems like a 2-point race either way, as the Marquette likely vote screen is clearly too tight, and is being revealed as the Bradley propaganda that it likely is.

    State Senate feels like it’ll be 17-16 either way, and Assembly will also only change by a handful of seats.

    If turnout is near 60%, Burke and Dems win. If it’s closer to 55%, Walker and WisGOP wins. Even if WisGOP wins, they won’t have much of a mandate, and will face major pushback if they try to push anything very different (not that the looming budget deficit will allow much flexibility as it is). If the Dems win, they can at least stop the crazy train that it feels has been running the state off the tracks the last 4 years.

    1. In addition.

      YouGov. I found this.

      I’m pretty sure Marquette got a really faulty poll for the LV while the RV is closer to reality, and whatever result it’s going to be it’s going to be extremely close. Walker never breaks above 48. While it is in his favor, Burke can win this with enough turn out across the state. It will definitely no more than 2% though.

  9. Here’s an interesting pre-election take on things. Barbara With and Marianne Moonhouse write on the Wisconsin Citizens Media Cooperative site that the dramatic vote swings of the last several years may indicate, apparently, election fraud. In the second sentence they write that election fraud has likely been taking place right under our noses for the last many years.

    http://wcmcoop.com/2014/10/25/wisconsins-dramatic-vote-swings-raise-election-integrity-concerns/

      1. NQ,

        I floated these links just to see what folks might say. I’m not a fan of this theory or its adherents. The fact that none of the people who claim to have witnessed, or have photographic ” evidence ” of election fraud have ever taken it to a district attorney’s office for review is mighty curious.

  11. Whatever the outcome, Wisconsin has lost come Tuesday. That anyone would be in contention for Wisconsin’s top job without an education and promoting an agenda designed around two pillars – personal political ambition and handout’s for the donors and cronies at the cost of fiscal responsibility and investment in citizens, infrastructure, and modern business is tragic enough. And then there is our state’s so-called flagship newspaper. We now know after this week that a person (credibility not required) may make an accusation against a state public figure and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel will print it. They won’t research the source, check with other sources, nor carefully weigh the facts they’ve gathered. They. Will. Just. Print. It. And so a new bottom is set. Running neck and neck in your state or county or municipal race? No problem. Just make up an accusation of incompetency, or rape, or murder, or drug use or whatever and have a crony phone it in. The state media pick it up, momentum shifts, and Democracy continues its death march.

  12. I’d argue in a friendly manner that the, “news,” historically has been in the tank forever. Scott Walker is using age-old proven techniques. One version from my youth: http://www.pbs.org/battlefieldvietnam/history/index.html

    That said, in addition to what you’ve pointed out, Charles Franklin should be run out of the state on a rail. A qualified pollster, certainly, how else could he know how to get the result he did in his last Marquette Poll? Same can probably be said for WPR/St Norbert and the Carroll (a college who merely changed their name) “University,” in Waukesha.

    As we can only guess what special bonus Franklin received for his work with that stringently filtered sample, any “news,” organization that ever quotes him on anything again will be entirely of my list for contributions (WPR already qualified) and will receive a flat refusal to make any purchases from other advertisers using that same outlet.

    1. At the very least, Franklin et al should fully disclose funding sources. Of course that would be a useful piece of information for the state media to report but likely they’d have to embark upon real journalism so it’s a non-starter to the Bice/Stein crowd.

      2. Not surprised you’d resort to violence, that’s not what I was proposing. As you obviously missed it, I was referring to financial boycotting.

        But you, having proven yourself a racist, bigot and misogynist with your history of comments here, do then seem perfectly capable. Elimination of the minimum wage and what you’ve yet to comment on about exploiting third-world child slave labor to make your living, shooting people seems right up your alley.

        1. You realize that “shoot the messenger” is just an expression right?

          Why are you so mad at Charles Franklin? Were you mad at him in 2012 when he had Obama up 8 and Baldwin up 4? It sounds like you are suffering from a bit of confirmation bias.

          1. I recall very clearly questions about funding for years. Why would anyone on any side not want full disclosure of their funding sources? Let’s hear it, please.

            1. Why are you trying to make me argue in favor of a point that I didn’t make? I’m fine with them disclosing their funding sources.

              That said I don’t understand what purpose it would serve. It seems like nonquixote has already made up his or her mind that Franklin is in the tank for Walker. So I am assuming that anyone on this hypothetical list of funding providers who ever so much as said something nice about a Republican is going to be used as evidence to that effect. But yeah, if it will make you feel better, disclose away.

              1. You can’t think what purpose knowledge would serve? If the poll is heavily funded by a partisan foundation (either side), how on earth could Franklin’s unbiased claim stand? Good information to know either way.

                  1. Well, the Governor sells out pretty cheaply – not sure “heavy” funding is necessarily the threshold for bias.

          2. Dan @7:42 am

            First, I affirmed Franklin’s polling abilities. So the rest of your comment is meaningless regarding my feelings about 2012 polling.

            Emma is on the right track, we are more than hinting at the likely-hood that Franklin’s funders required a particular message just then, with the last Marquette poll.

            Assuming that gubernatorial candidates spending $10’s of millions have reliable internal polling, have a guess at the reason for publicly reported polling.

            Referring to EmmaR’s 7:23 am, I know several Republicans who are not voting for their entire party line this time around. Emma would more correctly have been referring to, “fascists,” there who have only their, “truths,” but then fascists appear in multitudes on both sides of the political isle.

            But geez, I was hoping someone would offer a comment or two on my 6:33 am.

        2. Not proposing violence eh non? Want everything taken literally non? Very well.

          Via Wikipedia: Riding the rail (also called running out of town on a rail) was a punishment in Colonial America in which a man (rarely a woman) was made to straddle a fence rail (usually the triangular split-rail rather than the modern machine-milled) held on the shoulders of at least two men, with other men on either side to keep him upright. The victim was then paraded around town or taken to the city limits and dumped by the roadside.[citation needed] Intense pain came from the weight of the body resting on the sharp, narrow edge and injuries from the ride could, if the victim were stripped, cut the crotch and make walking painful.

          So its ok to sever a mans scrotum on a splintered fence rail if he displeases you with his polling methods, the accuracy of which may yet be proven. But somehow I suspect you got a bit ruffled over rough interrogation methods of foreign terrorists. A tad inconsistent and more than a little violent, eh non?

          And what specific charges would you like to level against my business? I will be happy to answer them.

          1. Denis,

            Thanks again for confirming you’re not a conservative. “But somehow I suspect you got a bit ruffled over rough interrogation methods of foreign terrorists.”

            “James Foley Was Tortured By ISIS Militants Using CIA Techniques”

            http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/28/james-foley-tortured-isis-waterboarded_n_5732098.html

            When is Obama going to release the CIA torture report?

            “Connecting the Dots on the CIA Torture Report”

            https://www.emptywheel.net/2014/10/23/connecting-the-dots-on-the-cia-torture-report/

            1. What is your point John? Did you expect ISIS to treat hostages well? Or are you suggesting they were mean to Foley in retribution for our treatment of terrorist prisoners, and that otherwise they would have been nice to Foley? Did they learn beheading from the CIA as well?

              1. Denis wrote: “What is your point John?”

                Which part didn’t you understand?

                Denis wrote: “Did you expect ISIS”

                ISIS = Saudi Arabia and Pakistan

                Denis wrote: “to treat hostages well?”

                That question is too dumb to answer.

                Denis wrote: “Or are you suggesting they were mean to Foley in retribution for our treatment of terrorist prisoners, and that otherwise they would have been nice to Foley?”

                And people say you’re dumb.

                Denis wrote: “Did they learn beheading from the CIA as well?”

                If CIA would release the torture report, we’d know. Why won’t they release the report? Too mean?

                Since you brought it up, when was Foley murdered? Please provide the exact date. Thanks in advance.

                1. John, the black helicopters are coming for your tin foil hat. And non, in case you are reading, I don’t dispatch the black helicopters to steal tin foil hats because that would be an unwarranted (like literally, no search warrant) and violent intrusion that I simply can’t support. Rather, my statement about the helicopters and the tin foil should be interpreted figuratively. What I am suggesting is that John’s doubts about the decapitation of James Foley indicates that John has descended into paranoid/conspiracy delusional thinking. Disclaimer: Any grammatical errors contained herein can be blamed on budgets cuts which have decimated the number of CIA editors involved in Operation Covert Midterm Distract.

          2. Thanks for the historical reference, I must have gotten mine from a Little House re-run when the kids were small. No scrotum slicing for Franklin, but I think I recall tar and a few feathers were available in Walnut Grove. And again, I was not questioning his polling methods, but the motivation behind the skewed filter. I don’t think the skew was a mistake.

            Actually I am more upset with those foreign terrorists murdering whole families who were attending a wedding, the wedding party being the recipients of US drone fired rockets. I’m equally upset with the Tuesday “victim,” conviction selection meetings at the White House to determine who will be executed without arrest, evidence or trial. And ICYMI that tactic is being followed by militarized US civilian police regularly.

            Finally, who me, making charges? Just curious as to the policies from inventory suppliers you might have in place and are strictly adhering to.

            1. Your comment that I am “exploiting third-world child slave labor to make your living” sounds like an accusation to me. Now your just curious about the policies of my inventory suppliers. Sounds like a fishing expedition – not real fish mind you – I mean you seem to be asking me to prove my innocence to the charge of using child labor, though you have offered no evidence whatsoever to suggest that I use slave labor. So why not tell me what evidence you have against me and while you are at it please let us know when exactly you stopped beating your wife.

              1. Thanks for your profuse contributions to let people know that they need to get out and vote for Susan Happ and for Mary Burke/John Lehman tomorrow. You’ve undoubtedly spurred more interest among the left than there might have been otherwise.

                I expect you won’t have much to say again after today, until the summer of 2016.

  13. Here’s a question for those of you with more statewide knowledge than me. How do you see the state Senate staking up on Nov 5? http://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin_State_Senate_elections,_2014

    Extrapolating, Walker loses and the state Senate is flipped. What will be going down legislatively between Nov 5, 2014 and mid-January 2015? I’d be guessing emergency sessions to sell off state property to Walker cronies, a lot of mid-night oil burning in the legislative chambers. No doubt Voss and Fitzgerald are hard at work for any contingencies already, but I wonder about the Democratic leadership.

  14. In this morning’s editorial,the MJS expressed some opinions on Walker and Burke but with no open and official endorsement.

    http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/as-gov-scott-walker-and-mary-burke-hit-the-home-stretch-final-thoughts-b99375646z1-280375992.html

    Okay, I have no problem with their “final thoughts” attempting to be an impartial or neutral observer; however, Haynes et al make a mega omission regarding one John Doe investigation resulting in six convictions or guilty pleas for Walker staff or allies and a continuation of a second investigation on finances. Surely this must redound to Walker’s term of office and be an essential part of any review comparing him to Burke. Also, why no mention of his broken jobs promise and the mismanagement of WEDC?

    My take on the MJS editors’ non-edorsement: Yes, Walker, is a little crude and while not perfect is preferable to an inexperienced Burke.

  15. Wisconsin State Journal endorsement: Burke best fit to reenergize state economy

    This is surprising to me, because Wisconsin State Journal endorsed Scott Walker both times. (In the initial election and the recall.) This is one thing if the Capitol Times were to endorse a Democrat for governor, but it doing this is really something. I was also expecting the MJS to be blatantly and openly for Walker as well. It instead it was “will not make reccomendations in the Nov. 4 election. We think the readers are better served when we focus on the issues raised in these elctions and encourage a thoughful discussion.” Mind you, it was still playing soft ball with Walker, but I think this is kind of telling.

  16. EmmaR, any lingering support I had for donor disclosure laws went out the window (that is a figure of speech non – you can’t really throw “support” out a window) when the left went after the tech guy for donating $100 to preserve the proper meaning of the word marriage. You might even call such tactics citizenship suppression techniques.

  17. If history is any indicator the predicted turnout favors Burke right now. The 2012 recall was an outlier that shouldn’t be feared as an indicator of any trend in Wisconsin. Pour it on tomorrow and Tuesday. Spencer Black says we need to bug everyone we know to get out and vote. Do it. Go the extra mile. A Burke victory is in reach.

  18. This time around Scott Walker less dominant in rural Wisconsin.

    This is an eye opening article for you guys to enjoy, since most of these people on here are from either suburban or urban areas. I can say as someone who is from Northeastern Wisconsin, I seen a lot of hand made Mary Burke signs on farms and in the country side, and a ton of Scott Walker signs in empty buildings that went out of business during his term. While I said Brown County is not going to go Blue, I do think it may perhaps be a very pale red with the massive turn out here.

      1. I think a huge part of it might be this.

        Rural schools: State funding system ‘absolutely broke’.

        Walker admittedly took a big shit over the rural population, and I think that’s why there is going to be a huge push back where it might be hard for him to win. This isn’t saying everyone out here turned liberal, but I have seen many homes around here that flipped. It will still come down to turn out. So I encourage everyone to go out and vote.

  20. Well, here we go again.

    We couldn’t send Walker packing on his first try.

    We failed in the Recall.

    And if he succeeds again, I suggest we call in an authority on the Rite of Exorcism.

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